Citizens protesting the Israeli government’s measures weakening the Supreme Court as a pillar of the country’s democracy in Tel Aviv, March 2023/Amir Terkel

Amid intense debates in both America and Israel about the future of democracy, Jewish voters in this US presidential election are focused on domestic concerns with much wider implications. Presidential historian Gil Troy provides the consummate primer on that electoral alchemy.

Gil Troy

August 24, 2023

It has long been an American political truism that multicultural New York is the only city whose mayor needs a foreign policy, because of the votes to be lost by saying the wrong thing. By contrast, the American president needs a foreign policy even though there are usually few votes to be gained or lost based on it. The truth, confirmed by multiple polls over decades, is that when most Americans enter the voting booth, they usually have domestic policy – or the candidates’ personalities – on their minds. The American presidential campaign is paradoxical: Foreign policy has swayed remarkably few elections – especially amid today’s tribal battles. Many isolationist-oriented Democrats support Biden’s Ukraine policy because they support Joe Biden, while many once-interventionist Trumpians disdain that policy because they don’t. Nevertheless, it will be very surprising if foreign policy — especially involving Israel — doesn’t play a role in this campaign.

Even American Jews – who have long been caricatured as single-issue voters – rarely vote based on Israel. In September, 2022, a pre-midterm Jewish Electorate Institute Poll found that while 45 percent of American Jews polled said the “future of democracy” in the time of Donald Trump was the biggest issue on their minds, and 38 percent prioritized abortion rights, only 7 percent listed Israel at the top of their motivations. Polls in 2020 by the liberal lobby group J-Street and the Republican Jewish Coalition found that neither “foreign policy” nor “Israel” were swaying Jewish votes. Yet, with Israel in turmoil, and the battle over Benjamin Netanyahu’s future intensifying, all the attention Israel gets will inevitably play a role in the coming 2024 campaign – if not the outcome.

Most Jews are more pro-choice than pro-Israel when voting – but that doesn’t mean they aren’t pro-Israel. And while Israel may not loom large on Election Day, it plays a significant role in the invisible primary — the months of jockeying and fundraising prior to the first primaries and caucuses, often so crucial to choosing the nominee. Finally, it’s tautological but true – Israel looms large because Israel looms large. The disproportionate attention the media pays to Israel means that, most likely, Israel will play a disproportionate role in the warp and woof of this presidential campaign.

Let’s consider each of these three propositions separately.

The two things everyone “knows” about Jews in American politics contradict one another. First, everyone knows that most Jews are Democratic, especially in the age of Trump. A more recent Jewish Electorate Institute poll published in June showed the Biden-Trump split among Jewish voters at 72 percent-22 percent. In the 1930s, wags were fond of saying that Jews believe in die velt — “this world” — in Yiddish, yene velt – the next world — and Roosevelt. Today, we could say that most Jews worship in the church of liberalism – they are liberal Jews and American liberals. It’s not just that only 10 percent of American Jews are Orthodox and that 65 percent to 75 percent of American Jews vote Democratic. It runs much deeper. Most American Jews feel more directly threatened by the Supreme Court decision banning abortion and Donald Trump’s attacks on democracy than by university departments boycotting Israel and Palestinians attacking Israeli citizens.

Most American Jews oppose all four phenomena – but the first two hit them more personally, and far closer to home. Politics and voting are not just about what you believe in – but how intensely you believe in what you believe in. That’s why it’s accurate to say most American Jews are far more pro-choice than pro-Israel, especially in the voting booth, but that doesn’t mean they are anti-Israel.

Politics and voting are not just about what you believe in – but how intensely you believe in what you believe in.

This dynamic has only intensified in recent years, as American Jews have become so Americanized with time, and American politics has become so polarized, especially with Trump. This is the age of the Backward-Reasoning Partisan Voter. In a highly polarized, binary environment, you pick your package – and brook no deviation. So, if, like most American Jews, you’re a Biden cheerleader, you overlook all kinds of inconveniences. You deem mentioning President Joe Biden’s advancing age not helpful, and overlook the troubling fact that today’s Democratic Party, while still pro-Israel, is also the major American political party most hospitable to fanatic anti-Zionists who hate Israel for what it is, not just what it does. Similarly, if, like most Orthodox Jews, you are pro-Trump, you also overlook all kinds of inconveniences. You forgive Donald Trump’s many crimes and excesses while ignoring the fact that today’s Republican Party, while passionately pro-Israel, is also the major American political party most hospitable to aggressive white supremacists, who hate Jews and see Jews at the center of many conspiracies preventing American from being great again.

These intense loyalties and blind spots determine your votes on Election Day. Still, in the era of the permanent campaign, there are many other opportunities for a candidate’s stance on Israel to count. Most dramatically, especially in previous presidential cycles, a candidate’s stance on Israel was particularly relevant when it came to fundraising. You need not be an anti-Semitic conspiracy theorist to notice that Jews are disproportionately generous and among the leading funders of both parties, punching way above their demographic weight.

It’s actually a compliment. It’s not because Jews are disproportionately rich or manipulative but because American Jews are disproportionately civic-minded and involved in public life, especially political life. That generosity plays a role in the build-up to most campaigns. Here’s where Israel becomes important. Because most American Jews remain passionately pro-Israel, many Jewish donors are reluctant to fund candidates hostile to Israel. So, while the Democratic Party may have members of the Squad and other Progressives hostile to Israel, those Bash Israel Firsters rarely nab Jewish donors, or Jewish supporters.

Sadly, in this age of packaged politics, Israel has increasingly become a wedge issue. Republicans have cleverly tried to make being pro-Israel proof of being Republican. And, in fairness, most Republicans are far more passionately, unapologetically, uncritically, pro-Israel than more and more Democrats. Republicans — especially Trump Republicans — are particularly prone to brandishing their pro-Israel credentials to mock Democrats – and liberal Jews – for not being true to America’s closest ally in the Middle East, as well as to burnish their own human rights credentials – on their terms.

That is why, as the campaign develops, Israel is likely to flare up repeatedly as an issue. Republicans seek to exploit it, especially given Trump’s impressive record in finally recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, opening America’s embassy there, and then, paving a way forward toward the Abraham Accords.

Finally, if we understand the American presidential campaign as one prolonged political stress test, wherein rivals, reporters, and citizens use the candidates’ respective reactions to various stimuli to determine just who they are, Israel proceeds daily through too many minefields for there not to be some explosions. Over the course of the next year, the question of the nature of democracy will be played out in Israel; critical questions about Iran and nuclear proliferation will be played out over Israel; and questions about just how one responds when the unexpected happens will be played out again and again in the Middle East, often regarding Israel.

As an historian, it’s hard enough to dissect the past, much less predict the future. At this point, the only prediction I’m usually willing to make about 2024 is that Election Day will indeed take place, as planned on November 5, 2024. Still, it’s pretty to safe to add the prediction that, somehow or other, the current debates over Israel’s future will spill over into America’s presidential campaign – for better and worse. 

Professor Gil Troy is a Distinguished Scholar in North American History at McGill University. The author of numerous books on the American presidency,  he is, most recently, editor of the three-volume set, Theodor Herzl: Zionist Writings, the inaugural publication of The Library of the Jewish People.