Maya Angelou’s line ‘When people show you who they are, believe them the first time’ is a powerful one for a reason,’ writes John Delacourt, ‘especially when speaking of Trump.’ — Tyler Merbler via Creative Commons

As the narrative of the 2024 US presidential election campaign begins to take shape, terms that have not been part of routine election patter since previous world wars on democracy are beginning to clutter the word cloud. Longtime Liberal strategist John Delacourt examines what’s up with this century’s America First crowd, and the propaganda war on Joe Biden.

John Delacourt

August 24, 2023

Wednesday, November 9^th, 2016, the morning after Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election, remains a vivid memory. I was still working in the first Trudeau government and, like most other staffers, watched throughout the night as each state reported its results. Once Clinton’s defeat was all but assured with the electoral college votes, I felt a darkening sense of what this would mean, not just for Canada-US relations, but for America’s place in the world as well.

“How bad could it truly be?” was the refrain from those friends and family who were trying to offer some words of consolation, and indeed one could have been accused of over-reacting, being too much of a Cassandra in those early hours. Yet I recall walking over to the Prime Minister’s Office for the usual morning meeting — over-caffeinated to compensate for the two hours of sleep the night before — and seeing my colleague (and then-PMO communications planner) Mike Maka’s wide- eyed look, which said “holy sh*t” more eloquently than any other Canadian expression of panic, including the crowd of lobbyists and their clients packed in like a Tokyo subway car in the front entrance of the Langevin Building. It confirmed that I wasn’t overreacting at all.

Indeed, working-stiff Cassandras like us would still have cause to be surprised in the months ahead, as arbitrary steel sanctions were announced and as Trump’s efforts to play to his base increased the prospect of an all-out trade war even before his inauguration.

But this time around, as Trump appears poised, based on polls alone, to secure the Republican nomination from a courtroom if not a jail cell, the question of how bad it could be if he wins has been answered already, with the transition planning led by Brooke Rollins of the America First Policy Institute (AFPI). Rollins, who worked in Trump’s White House for a while and led his Domestic Policy Council (and recruited eight former cabinet secretaries among her staff of 172), is replicating a transition strategy conceived by some rock-ribbed Republicans with the conservative Heritage Foundation, whose right-wing pedigree as home to the architects of the Reagan Revolution is now looking positively progressive in retrospect.

But this coming revolution, should Trump win, is something else entirely. Over a thousand pages of policy documents outline a vision for the country that redefines “America First” on starker terms. Some planks of this nascent platform include: finishing the border wall, implementing a new, more punitive round of tariffs for countries like ours, making unfunded tax cuts permanent and ending automatic citizenship for anyone born in the United States. As our forests burn it is also wise to take note of the pledge by the second-term Trumpians to “end the war on fossil fuels” by rolling back many of Biden’s efforts for the clean energy transition.

As Trump appears poised, based on polls alone, to secure the Republican nomination from a courtroom if not a jail cell, the question of how bad it could be if he wins has been answered already.

Yet the largest tell, given the name of this new think tank, is the council’s explicit skepticism of NATO and the efficacy of Biden’s foreign policy in numerous posts under the international affairs tab on the Council’s website. The bellicose tone on China might be predictable – and arguably warranted – but the caginess regarding the US’s commitment to support for Ukraine is likely to be cause for greater concern.

Maya Angelou’s line that “When people show you who they are, believe them the first time” is a powerful one for a reason, especially when speaking of Trump. The former president more than revealed his true colours throughout his presidency — most notably in its final days — and has said he would end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours if elected once again. He will not say how, but if the AFPI tone on multilateralism is any indication, and if his past collegial (read fawning) relations with Putin are a guide, ending the war is likely to be nothing less than appeasement of Putin’s neo-fascist, criminal invasion.

And that gets complicated for Canada. I posed the question of what Trump’s victory might mean for the multilateral effort in Ukraine to a couple of offices just a few days after the recent federal cabinet shuffle. No answer from Defence, but less than 24 hours after my emails, Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly, in a radio interview, suggested she is already being briefed on all possible scenarios: “In general, there is our game plan, precisely to be able to manage what could be a rather difficult situation.”

Indeed, as University of Ottawa national-security professor Thomas Juneau offered, further speculating on what Joly and Trudeau’s PMO might be gaming out, we’re likely to see even greater economic protectionism and there could be impacts on intelligence-sharing. “What would have been extremely far-fetched scenarios maybe 10 years ago, today are not impossible anymore,” he said. Such scenarios clearly include punitive measures taken by any second Trump administration for Canada’s steadfast defence of democracy and the rules-based international order.

History rarely, if ever, rhymes, but it is instructive to read of how governments such as Winston Churchill’s agonized over the threat of US isolationist influences in the midst of the Second World War. Churchill was acutely aware that Roosevelt needed strong convincing of the merits in joining the war effort in Europe. Domestic politics and America First protectionism kept the president preoccupied, and these were bolstered by the counsel Roosevelt was getting from his ambassador to the UK, Joseph P. Kennedy Sr. to stay out of the war.

Canadian efforts played a crucial role in turning the tide for US involvement. Henry Hemming’s Agents of Influence tells of how Winnipeg-born and raised William Stephenson — also known as A Man Called Intrepid — set up the first-ever war room with a whole team of Canadian recruits in the Radio City Music Hall building in New York. Their whole operation was focused on an air war of propaganda; “fake news” planted to torque the threat of German influences in America. This war room played a significant role in countering the original America First, pro-appeasement influences across the US, and helped Churchill’s one-man charm offensive with Roosevelt immensely.

But this time around, the forces of fake news are likely to be all on Trump’s side, especially with a Russian-backed offensive on social media platforms, complete with deep fake videos, and a far more sophisticated disinformation strategy regarding Biden’s international relations commitments. It is hard to imagine any counteroffensive led from anywhere that might be effective. There will be no intrepid Canadians operating out of Radio City Music Hall.

Whatever our government might be gaming out, it must start from the premise that the game itself is likely to change dramatically with the next Trump air war, and his America-First presidential campaign.

Contributing Writer John Delacourt, Vice President at Counsel Public Affairs in Ottawa, is a former director of the Liberal research bureau. He is also the author of three novels.