By Don Newman

January 6, 2025

Justin Trudeau has now announced that he will step down as leader of the federal Liberal Party and Prime Minister of Canada once the party picks his successor. As readers of this column may recall, the scenario we now face was forecast in my December column, Bracing for a Foggy Political Holiday Season. That fog, for the moment, has lifted — at least from Trudeau’s own plans.

The Prime Minister also got a prorogation of Parliament until March 24 from Governor-General Mary Simon. With Parliament not sitting, the Liberals will use that time to run a truncated leadership process. The new leader and prime minister will likely face a confidence vote after march 24th. The Liberals are almost certain to lose that vote and an election will be called. Failing that, if the leadership race triggers a big jump in the polls for the Liberals, the party may ask the Governor-General for an election while they are riding high.

More of the fog will clear as the serious candidates reveal their interest, announce their backers and the selection process begins.

The new leader will face that vote provided Trudeau’s successor is a sitting MP. Most of the candidates who will run for the leadership are cabinet ministers in the Trudeau government. But two likely candidates are not: Mark Carney, the former international economics star as governor of not only the Bank of Canada, but also the Bank of England, and Christy Clark, the former Premier of British Columbia. Tellingly, both released statements immediately thanking Trudeau for his service to Canada. Neither has a seat in the House of Commons. If either were to win, the Liberal caucus would have to select a temporary parliamentary leader to accept the defeat.

Discontent over Trudeau’s leadership began seriously building as the Liberals began losing byelections that they should have won in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver this past summer. The party was already far behind in the polls and the byelection losses confirmed the concerns of many Liberal MPs: that a looming election, scheduled for no later than  October 20, 2025, would turn into a disaster for the Liberals and most of them would lose their ridings and be out of work.

‘Chrystia has been an incredible partner,’ Trudeau said, embracing his recent nemesis on the same day the opposition parties were claiming all Liberals — not just Trudeau — were guilty of all his sins and weaknesses.

When Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland shockingly resigned on December 16, the same day she was to deliver the government’s Fall Economic Statement, Trudeau’s fate was essentially sealed. By the end of December, a majority of MPs in the Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic caucuses had called for Trudeau’s resignation. A large majority of the total Liberal MPs are in those groups.

Trudeau recognized the collapse of caucus support in his resignation announcement.

“If I have to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option,” he said in a moment of remarkable understatement.

But he also, subtly, put in the knife into Freeland, his loyal political asset and deputy of a decade, in response to a reporter’s question.

“Chrystia has been an incredible partner,” Trudeau said, embracing his recent nemesis on the same day the opposition parties were claiming all Liberals — not just Trudeau — were guilty of all his sins and weaknesses. If Freeland does run—-an all-but certainty —- her proximity to Trudeau will be a liability, not an asset.

The executive of the Liberal Party will now meet to decide how to run a leadership race in less time than the party constitution calls for, as well as how much candidates can spend, how many debates will be held, and the other mechanics of the selection process. Those decisions are housekeeping, but they could also affect the race going forward.

For now, we know that the Justin Trudeau era is coming to an end. That in three months Canada will have a new prime minister who will almost immediately have to fight an election to keep their new job.

Contributing Writer and columnist Don Newman, an Officer of the Order of Canada and lifetime member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery, is Executive Vice President of Rubicon Strategy, based in Ottawa.