By Lori Turnbull

October 21, 2024

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in an abysmal political situation, and the hits keep on coming. Before the House of Commons returned for the fall sitting, the New Democrats terminated the supply and confidence agreement that had inoculated the minority Liberal government since March of 2022. Successive public opinion polls predict Trudeau’s demise in the next election, set for October 20, 2025, but which could come any time based on Trudeau’s weighting of an early election call as a way out of his current situation and the government’s exposure to non-confidence motions.

Four more cabinet ministers have confirmed they will not run in the next election. Meanwhile, a group of Liberal caucus members are conspiring to force Trudeau out of his position as leader of the party. They’ve been organizing for weeks and plan to confront the Prime Minister at this week’s caucus. He’s never been in a more vulnerable position but has refused to quit. Why does he hold on, despite all of the factors weighing him down?

First of all, quitting is not in his nature. He likes a challenge. For example, when he first won his seat in Papineau back in 2008, many thought he would not be able to pull it off. It was not a safe seat for the Liberals. Before Trudeau came along, Pierre Pettigrew won the seat for the Liberals by only 468 votes in 2004. He then lost the riding to the Bloc Quebecois candidate just two years later. Trudeau had his work cut out for him, but he won. When he beat Patrick Brazeau in a charity boxing match, it added another layer to that underdog factor. He draws energy from defying people’s expectations of him and it seems that he wants to do that again.

Second, and relatedly, Mr. Trudeau is not always the best judge of himself and his circumstances. Former ethics commissioner Mary Dawson remarked back in 2020 that Trudeau might have a “blind spot” when it comes to his own behaviour. She was speaking specifically about his violation of the Conflict of Interest Act by spending Christmas vacation on the Aga Khan’s island.

His subsequent decisions to spend the first Truth and Reconciliation Day on a beach in Tofino and to not recuse himself from cabinet’s decision to award a huge contract to the WE Charity, with which he had family and business dealings, suggest that he does not understand how others see and judge him and his actions. He might lack the self-awareness that would be required to understand just how much hot water he is actually in. He seems to believe he can rise above the circumstances and beat Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives in the next election, and he’s willing to take his party with him on this highly dubious ride.

To be fair, he’s certainly not the first political leader to have an inflated sense of self-determination, without which individuals probably would never run for high political office in the first place. But his nonchalance and perplexing optimism are likely to add to caucus frustration. In his recent appearance on Liberal MP Nathanial Erskine-Smith’s podcast Uncommons, Trudeau seems to dismiss his critics because they are focusing his bad polling numbers rather than his policy accomplishments. His attitude does nothing to assuage the concerns of MPs who fear losing their jobs because of Trudeau’s unpopularity. That’s why they’re worried about the polling data: because he seems to be ignoring it.

To be fair, he’s certainly not the first political leader to have an inflated sense of self-determination, without which individuals probably would never run for high political office in the first place.

The third reason he hasn’t resigned is that, though he certainly has his detractors – both within and outside his party – they can’t really force him out. Or, at least, they haven’t yet. The Liberal caucus could have given themselves the option of using the Reform Act – which allowed the Conservatives to relieve Erin O’Toole of his duties as leader just a few months after the 2021 election – but they did not take this route. And now, they are left without a formal mechanism to trigger a leadership review process within caucus.

Consequently, Trudeau’s intra-caucus decriers are putting their names in ink on a secret document that they plan to use to convince him to quit via “quiet coup”. But, however serious these caucus members are, it is very likely that there are going to be others in the room who continue to back Trudeau. Finance minister Chrystia Freeland says that Trudeau loyalists make up the majority. And so, efforts to oust him will likely be most successful at creating tensions within the party regardless of what Trudeau does next. This helps no one on the Liberal benches.

Though these factors have contributed to Trudeau’s decision not to change course, there are a couple of urgencies that have appeared recently that could shake things up. For instance, Liberal MPs’ nervousness about the next election is reaching a boiling point. According to Charlottetown MP Sean Casey, he is being told by constituents that it’s time for Trudeau to go. He is in a safe Liberal seat that he risks losing because of Trudeau, so he’s got nothing to lose by asking for him to step aside. These calls might become louder, more urgent, and more desperate as the next election gets closer.

Also, though some Liberal MPs and others have publicly flirted with the idea of launching leadership campaigns, there has been no Paul Martin to Trudeau’s Chretien. There has been no organized challenge that would force Trudeau to respond. But that might change with Christy Clark’s announcement that she wants to be part of the conversation about the leadership of the Liberal Party, which, given its timing, certainly seems intended to provide fuel to the caucus rebellion.

Trudeau detractors are likely to get nowhere unless there is an alternative leader for them to rally around. Clark is not a caucus member and therefore is under no expectation to show Trudeau any loyalty. And while she served as a Liberal BC premier, she is known as a centrist and could appeal to moderate conservatives in the next election.

There is not enough time for Clark – or anyone else – to wrestle the party from Trudeau’s grip before the next election. He’d have to go willingly. And it is not clear whether cabinet, caucus, or the Liberal Party at large would accept Clark as its leader. Further, the fact that Trudeau has made the party over in his own image was always going to make any leadership transition difficult. If the party can shift to another leader in attempt to save itself before it’s too late, it will be proof of life beyond the second Trudeau era.

Policy Columnist Lori Turnbull is a professor in the Faculty of Management at Dalhousie University.