Donald Trump has launched his second presidency with a fixation on Canada/Shutterstock

By Lloyd Axworthy, Michael W. Manulak, and Allan Rock

February 4, 2025

With each successive provocation, it is becoming clear that President Donald Trump’s fixation with Canada is more than a negotiating ploy. Whether or not Trump seeks to revisit 19th century thinking about America’s “manifest destiny,” his comments threaten Canadian sovereignty. His demeaning treatment of Canada and its prime minister — from his coercive threat of 25% tariffs to his mendacity and inconsistency in justifying those tariffs, to his repeatedly stated annexation fantasies — cannot be regarded as anything other than a hostile act.

Close to 80% of Canada’s exports are destined for its southern neighbour. The dangers associated with almost total reliance on one market are abundantly clear. Canada must diversify its trading relationships, reducing reliance on U.S. markets. These themes have been well-covered in recent policy discourses and need little elaboration here.

The Canadian government has planned a hard-hitting response, including 25% tariffs on $155 billion worth of goods. Plans for such a response are well developed and will impact American consumers.

Even with tariffs paused by Trump on February 3 for 30 days, Canada needs a diplomatic strategy to complement its economic measures. It should use this short reprieve to plan such a response. Ongoing extortionary threats by Trump, leaving the Canadian economy hanging in the balance, are unacceptable. And an America First ethos could extend well beyond Trump’s second term. Canada—and the world—must be prepared.

Trump’s antics have much broader implications than Canada-U.S. trade, or even the independence of Greenland and Panama. A changing U.S. role in the world means that many longstanding assumptions about international politics no longer hold. Whether or not he eventually follows through on his threats, significant damage has already been done. Trump’s actions threaten the underlying norms of the international system. They presuppose a world where big states can coerce smaller ones with impunity.

Now more than ever, Canada needs partners. It needs to work with others to counter U.S. behaviour.

A Dog in the Fight

The global system is facing a decisive turning point. Americans voted for Trump in 2024 with eyes wide open. The credibility of U.S. global commitments, shaken in recent years, has been badly undermined. Trump’s coercive actions toward his neighbours harken back to an age of imperialism. They distort and defy the norms that have underpinned international politics for centuries.

His reference to the Canada-U.S. border as “an artificially drawn line” mirrors Russian President Vladmir Putin’s pre-invasion treatment of Ukraine. Trump’s move to cut off U.S. aid to Ukraine serves to reinforce the view that the U.S. president believes that large states have an inherent right to dominate their neighbours. They are consistent with a world of spheres of influence.

While Trump has ruled out the use of military force in the case of Canada, his rhetoric undermines Canada’s political and economic stability. And the president has not ruled out forceful actions in the case of Greenland and Panama.

This talk flies in the face of traditional notions of sovereignty. As argued by Roland Paris in 2020, Trump’s rhetoric undermines the Westphalian world order. Rather than being held to the same norms and laws as others, big powers have special privileges. Two other world leaders routinely employ such ideas: Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping.

This is deeply destabilizing. It eats away at the very foundations of international order. As former Canadian prime minister, Lester B. Pearson, channeling Thucydides, noted in reference to international order: “We do not want a world in which the powerful do as they will and the less powerful endure what they must.” For the current figurehead of the existing order to endorse such ideas should be a wakeup call for the world. Ideas about the inherent right of big states to dominate have long been discredited. They are a pathway to international chaos and, let’s be blunt, bloodshed. They are also profoundly undemocratic. They cut against the right of all states to representation on the world stage.

Canada’s aim should be to make clear that Trump’s hostile actions toward his neighbours are unacceptable and self-defeating, even if they are just talk. In world affairs, words matter — this is a fundamental tenet of diplomacy that has been proven, over and over again, throughout history.

It is important to remember that almost half of U.S. voters did not vote for Trump, and the ones who did were subjected to unprecedented levels of distortionary messaging. For all Americans, a strong international response must highlight the inconsistency of recent talk with deeply held, longstanding U.S. values.

Diplomatic Pushback

What is needed is strong diplomatic pushback on Trump’s tactics. Canada should reconvene the Alliance for Multilateralism or launch a similar forum. Dormant since 2021, the Alliance was organized initially by France and Germany in 2019. It includes 24 countries spanning the globe, including Chile, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Ireland, Jordan, Mexico, Norway, Peru, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, and Switzerland. Countries within the Alliance collaborate to strengthen global institutions and respect for international law.

Countries could band together to call out U.S. coercion and reinforce the rules-based order. Such a body could serve as a vehicle for enhancing cooperation. It could also be used to coordinate political and—importantly—economic consequences for any U.S. coercion toward its neighbours. Trump’s actions are well beyond the pale. They justify a forceful response.

In the Western Hemisphere, Mexico and Panama would be natural partners and co-convenors of this effort. Denmark may wish to join.

Beyond this, Canada’s allies should, in due course, speak out strongly against Trump’s bullying. There are risks in doing so. No one wants to provoke the mercurial U.S. president. But they too may soon find themselves in Trump’s crosshairs. We’re all familiar with the Winston Churchill quote, “An appeaser is one who feeds the crocodile hoping it will eat him last.” Indeed, Trump has now already threatened tariffs against the European Union. The United Kingdom should be first among those backing Canada. Canada’s head of state should also speak out.

In the longer run, Canada must strengthen priority bilateral and multilateral relationships. This should be driven by both economic and diplomatic imperatives. Priority relationships include Germany, Mexico, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. The past few years have shown the importance of friends in the presence of big power intimidation. Canada needs to invest in these relationships. Diplomatically, Canada has been too focused on the U.S. for too long. There is a need for greater independence.

The Alliance for Multilateralism should be used to reinforce key multilateral connections, including on climate, migration, and Arctic affairs.

Institutional Renewal

Any effort to check Trump’s behaviour must address the underlying causes of disenchantment with international rules and institutions. In some organizations, the gap between responsibility and representation has indeed widened to unhelpful proportions. Reform of the multilateral architecture—especially the United Nations—is a must. Now is a time for innovation and risk-taking. The UN is the world’s bulwark against imperialism.

In addition to informal and bilateral associations, Canada must work with other countries to reinforce and renew existing international institutions. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) — already unrepresentative — has faced gridlock. Respect for international humanitarian law has declined sharply. Climate and biodiversity institutions need to be updated. The World Trade Organization has been sidelined. The guardrails that previously brought stability to superpower relations, especially on nuclear weapons, have fallen away.

Reform to the UNSC is essential. Elsewhere, we have proposed employing the UN Trusteeship Council as a new tool for peacebuilding. The UN Economic and Social Council should be strengthened. The planned ministerial on the future of United Nations peacekeeping will be another opportunity to strengthen architecture. The Alliance for Multilateralism should help to coordinate broad-based support for ambitious UN reform.

Trump has already moved to freeze development aid, cancel de-mining assistance, as well as pull the U.S. out of the World Health Organization and the Paris climate agreement. Collaboration through the Alliance for Multilateralism might constitute something akin to George Kennan’s 1947 strategy of containment in dealing with the Soviet Union in the realm of international organization. Such a strategy might be explored for the Western Hemisphere through the Organization of American States.

Canada should also diversify its multilateral engagements. The Commonwealth of Nations, which soon welcomes a new secretary-general, is underutilized. It comprises 56 member states, including Australia, Bangladesh, Ghana, India, Kenya, Malaysia, Nigeria, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. La Francophonie is another worthwhile association that should receive new attention. It includes another 56 full member states, as well as observers and associate states. Such bodies should call out U.S. behaviour and can be used to build broad support for international cooperation. They will help Canada to widen its diplomatic reach in the face of U.S. pressure.

The Arctic would also benefit from strengthened engagement, especially with growing Russian and Chinese activities in the region. Canadian and U.S. interests overlap here. Trump’s actions will make collaboration difficult politically. Heightened cooperation through the Arctic Council is, however, possible. Institutional capacity should be enhanced.

The Way Forward

The time for complacency and half-measures is over. Canada should hit back hard on any U.S. tariffs and hostile rhetoric. In addition to economic measures, political and diplomatic mobilization is necessary. Multilateralism and the rules-based order are under threat. At the core of this will be calling out and delegitimizing U.S. tactics that seek to normalize outdated, discredited ideas about sovereignty. Trump’s antics toward allies and neighbours harken back to the dark days of imperialism.

Canada’s allies and friends internationally should speak out urgently against Trump’s coercion. Working through the Alliance for Multilateralism or some other mechanism, Canada could mobilize support for reinforcing multilateralism and respect for international law. Institutional renewal should be top of mind. At the core of this must be the indivisibility of the benefits and protections of multilateralism. Any attempt to segment these rights and responsibilities undermines the entire enterprise.

Lloyd Axworthy is Chair of the World Refugee and Migration Council. He was Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs from 1996 to 2000. He is author of My Life in Politics.

Michael W. Manulak is an Associate Professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University and the author of Change in Global Environmental Politics: Temporal Focal Points and the Reform of International Institutions.

Allan Rock is President Emeritus of uOttawa, and has served as Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada and Canadian Ambassador to the United Nations.