Column / Don Newman

Every federal budget must reconcile the perpetual fiscal tug-of-war of guns vs. butter. Budget 2022, landing as it did amid a hot war in Europe, faced a compelling argument for a greater tilt than usual toward the former.  

Amid the new spending for housing, social programs such as a national dental care program and money for initiatives to make the Canadian economy more innovative and competitive, there is new spending earmarked for defence.

Eight billion dollars over five years, to go with just over $2 billion already committed in previous budgets. The defence increases were triggered by previous commitments to the United States to upgrade the North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD) early warning system we share with them. Little of the money —- just $500 million — goes to buy weapons for Ukraine although Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is considered a major threat to world peace and stability.

Last year, Canada’s total defence budget was $24.3 billion. But the new defence spending is far short of even the minimum necessary to bring the Canadian military back to acceptable levels of operational and equipment standards. And it keeps Canada well below the 2 percent of GDP all NATO members are committed to achieve. With recent years of a more tranquil world, being a defence spending laggard was perhaps more acceptable. But with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the additional $10 billion is pitiful. Given the rapidly changing geopolitical environment and increasing threats to Canada and the democratic world both from Russia in Europe and China in the Pacific, if Canada is to remain a credible player and a dependable ally we are going to have to do a lot better.

Freeland seemed to realize that in a radio interview two days after the budget. She identified Putin as the biggest threat to Canada’s economy and security. Many people would agree with her. The problem is she didn’t put her money where her mouth is.

Plans for replacement of aging equipment and more effective recruitment have been on the books for years. The problem is that that’s where most of them stay — on the books, growing more expensive with each passing year they remain unfulfilled.

Ottawa now says it will pay about $19 billion to buy 88 CF-35 fighter jets to replace the fleet of CF-18s bought back in the 1980s. The CF-35 purchase was tentatively agreed to by a Liberal government in the late 1990s. But Canada was slow moving on acquiring the planes, and by 2011, Stephen Harper’s Conservative government cancelled the order. Then, the Liberal party, in a purely political move, announced it would never buy the CF-35. 

When they returned to power in 2015, the Liberals announced they would hold a competition to find a replacement for the CF-18s. That competition only took seven years. When the winner was announced, the successful bidder was: the CF-35.  Hopefully, the first planes will be operational by 2024.

The navy has the same kind of problems. It was the Harper Conser-vatives who agreed to the Canadian Surface Combatants Program. It is designed to replace the three Canadian Navy destroyers that are now retired, and the twelve Halifax frigates that are at the end of their lifecycle, having been acquired 40 years ago. The plan was to replace two different types and sizes of ships with 15 copies of one ship design. Since the program was first announced, the only thing yet floating is the cost of the program. The Parliamentary Budget Officer now estimates the cost at $77 billion and so far, not one keel has been laid. The support ships to keep the combatants at sea are estimated to cost about another $4 billion.

There are many other examples of escalating costs and nothing to show in new equipment. Among other pricey items that will soon have to be replaced are this country’s three aging submarines, bought second hand from the British more than 20 years ago. The cost for that will be high, particularly if we opt for nuclear powered submarines as many modern navies are now doing.

The lesson from all of this seems to be that thinking we can hide under the US defence umbrella and not maintain a military fit for a G7 country catches up to Canada. Costs escalate but we acquire no new equipment. What we have becomes outdated and our value as an ally becomes suspect. Canadians have never been satisfied with that kind of reputation before. We are going to have to let our politicians know loud and clear if we are not going to be satisfied with a reputation like that now.   

Contributing writer and columnist Don Newman, an Officer of the Order of Canada and Lifetime Member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery, is Executive Vice President of Rubicon Strategy in Ottawa.