By Lori Turnbull,

September 30, 2024

In all likelihood, barring some spectacular shift in our national political narrative, the Conservatives will win the next federal election. What is less certain is who will come second. The Liberals, the New Democrats, and the Bloc Quebecois could all be in this position and, for any of them — based on today’s indicators — it would be a victory. These are uncertain times politically, both in Canada and elsewhere, and traditional voting blocs and bases of support cannot be taken for granted. Safe ridings are not safe anymore (as the Liberals have learned the hard way).

Further, the recent strong showing for the Conservatives in the by-election in Elmwood-Transcona is a sign that the party is building support by expanding beyond its traditional base and making inroads with workers who might have been more comfortable voting NDP in the past.

The 2015 election and the triumphant victory of the Liberal Party was due in part to voter fatigue with the Conservatives under Stephen Harper and, among other factors, to the fact that Justin Trudeau won the “anybody but Harper” war against Tom Mulcair and the NDP. Trudeau brought the party from its worst showing ever – a mere 34 seats in the 2011 election – to a majority government with 184 seats. But nine years later, Trudeaumania 2.0 has officially curdled and the future of the Liberal Party – now swallowed whole by Trudeau’s tainted brand – is in question.

Meanwhile, the NDP is struggling to get noticed after spending more than two years keeping the Liberals in power. These parties have lost their centers of gravity. Don’t be surprised if the Bloc Québécois, which has kept its purity of focus, resumes its place as the Official Opposition.

A nightmare scenario for the Liberals would (and could) look something like 1993 did for the Progressive Conservatives: a free-fall from government status to political oblivion. According to Abacus Data, the Liberals are polling at 21% nationally right now compared to 19% for the NDP. These numbers spell disaster for the Liberals and potentially for the NDP too, to the extent that they could end up splitting the progressive vote with the Liberals and ceding much of the blue-collar vote to the Conservatives.

The Conservatives are in a position to sweep British Columbia, where currently the Liberals and the NDP hold 14 and 13 seats respectively. On the other coast, the Conservatives are polling at a solid 47% in Atlantic Canada, which could mean the loss of a major stronghold for the Liberals. The NDP are likely to pick up a seat in Halifax, but will rely almost entirely on Ontario for any gains to their seat count. The key will be to focus on a chunk of ridings where the vote split could go their way. But with the Conservatives polling at 46% in Canada’s largest province, the Liberals and NDP could find themselves fighting for the scraps.

In a way, the Bloc has it easier than other parties. They have fewer voters to appease and fewer divergent interests to aggregate.

This brings us to the Bloc – the party unlike any other. Committed to sovereignty for Quebec, the Bloc does not run candidates anywhere else. However, aspects of their policy platform – including protecting the environment, supporting seniors, and leaving the monarchy – have support across the country. The Bloc was formed by former federal cabinet minister and future Parti Québécois Quebec premier Lucien Bouchard in 1990 following the failure of the Meech Lake Accord negotiations which would have brought constitutional recognition of Quebec as a distinct society. Members of Parliament from Quebec — both Conservartive and Liberal — defected from their partisan homes to sit together in service of Quebec independence.

The plan was to for the party to work itself out of a job by achieving a mandate for separation on a referendum — a goal comparable to that of the Scottish National Party at Westminster. Over 30 years later however, the country remains intact as does the Bloc Québécois. But they were successful enough, largely due to Bouchard’s charisma, to form the Official Opposition in 1993. While not exactly plan A for the Bloc, this result caught Canadians by surprise and put the party on the map as a serious organization with the power to have real effect on Canadian politics and government — a status borne out by Bouchard’s role in the 1995 referendum on Quebec independence, which came within two percentage points of succeeding.

The Bloc is now leading the popular vote in Quebec with 37% compared to 28% for the Liberals and 22% for the Conservatives. In 1993, it was more of a two-way race between the Bloc and the Liberals with the Bloc winning 49% of the popular vote compared to 33% for the Liberals. However, all that matters in our electoral system is who comes first in each riding. Depending on how votes translate into riding results on election night, the Bloc could be in a position for significant gains.

Clearly, the Bloc Québécois are riding high since the New Democrats broke up with the Liberals. They are positioned to make demands of the government and to have impact both on policy outcomes as well as the timing of the next election. Leader Yves-François Blanchet has warned that if the government does not agree to expand old age security benefits to seniors under the age of 75 by October 29^th, the Bloc will begin efforts with other parties to bring down the government.

In a way, the Bloc has it easier than other parties. They have fewer voters to appease and fewer divergent interests to aggregate. Their exclusivity to Quebec means that their vote is concentrated rather than spread thinly across too many ridings, which is the eternal plight of the NDP. They will never form a government, so they can focus on demands rather than trade-offs. These factors allow the Bloc to be consistent and true to their roots. They stand for something while other parties are chasing every vote they can get, often sacrificing what used to be core beliefs in the process.

Losses for other parties, particularly the Liberals, open up a world of possibilities for the Bloc. Their by-election win in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun shows that whether Liberals switch their vote or just stay home and not vote at all, the Bloc stand to benefit. Between now and the next election, the Bloc will continue to make use of their newfound leverage. Time will tell whether the success of 1993 could be possible for them again.

Policy Columnist Lori Turnbull is a professor in the Faculty of Management at Dalhousie University.