Don Newman

February 2, 2022

Erin O’Toole is out as leader of the federal Conservative Party. In a brutal display of raw political power, Conservative MPs sent O’Toole packing. Seventy-three of the 119caucus members voted to relieve O’Toole of his job less than two years after he won a leadership race to claim it.

O’Toole has had a rough time since he won, the most difficult moment being last fall’s election outcome. The Conservatives closed two seats down from the previous election in 2019, but his greater political sin was that O’Toole blew a fleeting lead over Justin Trudeau by repeatedly flip-flopping on key issues.

But his real problem was the way he ran for the leadership. Although he was an Ontario MP, he told the party he was a “true blue” Conservative. It was an approach that appealed to the party base and made him the second choice of the religious right wing of the party, whose support on later ballots made him leader.

However, O’Toole was really not a “true blue” Conservative.  By instinct and background, he was an Ontario Progressive Conservative from a centrist tradition that included legendary premiers John Robarts and Bill Davis. He quickly began to show that. And he was quickly in trouble.

At a virtual party convention in the spring of last year, O’Toole made his first big speech as leader. His theme was that climate change is real and that the Conservative Party should change its position and recognize that fact. However, the next day at a plenary session, the convention delegates voted against changing the policy. Right away for those who wanted to read it, the writing was on the wall. Today that writing was there in big, bold capital letters.

The same was true in the election campaign. Policy positions changed on a weekly – sometimes on a daily basis. O’Toole seemed unsure and not always in control of his party. The surprising thing is that despite the confusion and a weak last week of the campaign, O’Toole was able to hold the Liberals to another minority.

However, the votes were barely counted before the knives were out. A member of the party’s national council called for O’Toole to be replaced. An MP questioned his leadership. A short time later, a Conservative senator started a petition to have the party’s convention date moved up so the scheduled vote on whether O’Toole could be replaced could be held earlier than the summer of 2023.

It all came to a head Monday, when 35 MPs served notice they wanted a caucus vote on whether to replace him. Political justice can be brutal. Two days later, they got their wish.

So now, O’Toole is gone and there will be a leadership race before grassroots party members choose among the candidates who run to replace him. But the race will be more than just a contest to replace Erin O’Toole.

The leadership race will illustrate whether the party that Stephen Harper put together from the Progressive Conservative Party and the Canadian Alliance in 2003 can hold together as a cohesive political force.

Because 20 years after the Harper merger came together it is still apparent there are two wings of the party. The Canadian Alliance wing was dominant at that time, and it remains so now. O’Toole did not belong to that wing. He is no longer there.

In a recorded statement released by O’Toole a couple of hours after his defeat, he said he accepted the results and pledged to support whoever replaces him. However, he also said the Conservative Party must move in the direction in which he has been trying to move it.

That could be an argument and a point of decision in the coming leadership race. Now, the Conservatives will have to make a choice on who they think can best hold what is an increasingly fractious party together.

Contributing Writer and columnist Don Newman, an Officer of the Order of Canada and Lifetime Member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery, is Executive Vice President of Rubicon Strategy, based in Ottawa.