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As Canada and the world adjust to the second American presidency of Donald J. Trump, beginning with his threats of a tariff-based trade war, Policy will be posting regular insight pieces from members of the Expert Group on Canada-US Relations, sharing their individual perspectives and expertise. The Expert Group is a foreign policy initiative jointly sponsored by Carleton University’s Norman Paterson School of International Affairs and the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.

With many thanks to Expert Group co-chairs and Policy contributors Perrin Beatty and Fen Osler Hampson, welcome to our Policy Special Series: The Expert Group on Canada-US Relations on Navigating Trump II:

We introduce the series with the Expert Group’s widely cited January 1, 2025 call to action, A Canada-First Response to Donald Trump. “Our country faces the most serious threat to its sovereignty and economic prosperity since the Second World War,” the statement warns. “Canada needs to take the initiative and generate bold ideas that will benefit both countries’ economic security and prosperity.”

And, in order from most-recently published: 

From NAFTA Chief Negotiator John Weekes on March 5, the day after the Trump Tariffs, some recommendations on how Canada can move forward now that Trump’s three-month tariff phoney war has given way to a real trade war. “Now, many Americans are finally going to begin speaking out about how that trade war is harming their interests,” writes Mr. Weekes. “So, ironically, the fact that tariffs are now in force may actually hasten the day when we will be able to restore some normalcy to our bilateral trade relationship.” here’s John M. Weekes with From Phoney War to Trade War: Canada’s Next Steps.

From former diplomat Bernard Etzinger on March 5, a look to the 1991 Allaire Report for guidance on how the provinces can be strengthened in the face of external threats to Canada’s economic sovereignty. “Jean Allaire saw something many in Canada did not,” writes Mr. Etzinger. “He saw that a centralized Canada, with Ottawa trying to micromanage everything, was a Canada vulnerable to political shocks.” Here’s Bernard Etzinger with A Decentralized Vision for Canada’s Survival.

From Expert Group co-chair Perrin Beatty, published on March 4, the day the Trump Tariffs became a reality, a piece about the dangers posed by underestimating Donald Trump. “During Donald Trump’s first term, The New Yorker published an iconic cartoon that showed a flock of sheep grazing on a hill alongside a billboard of a wolf who is campaigning for office. The wolf’s election slogan is ‘I am going to eat you,’ leading one sheep to comment, ‘He tells it like it is’,” writes Mr. Beatty. “There’s a lesson for us here. When Donald Trump says he wants to impose massive tariffs on us or absorb our country, we should believe him.” Here’s Perrin Beatty with Donald Trump’s Tariffs are a Goal, Not Just a Tool.

Business Council of Canada founding CEO Thomas d’Aquino‘s latest piece in our series, posted February 13, addresses the moving target of Trump’s tariffs with a comprehensive approach to strengthening Canada’s hand. “President Donald Trump has declared economic war on Canada,” writes d’Aquino. “Our top priority now? Let’s get on with the job!” Here’s Tom d’Aquino with A Canadian Business Strategy for Winning Trump’s Tariff War.

One of the many big-picture sidebars to the Trump tariff crisis is how its arbitrary unilateralism impacts the longstanding multilateral trading norms of the World Trade Organization and how Canada might use the WTO to effectively fight back. Former WTO Ambassador John Weekes reflects on the organization’s role in fostering free trade agreements provided they contribute to the general liberalization of trade without imposing new barriers. “This goal was more than pragmatic,” writes Weekes, “it was an agreed-upon value of postwar multilateralism, based on the belief that countries who trade with each other have a greater investment in peaceful relations.” Here’s John Weekes with Trump, Tariffs, and the WTO.

On February 3rd, Donald Trump agreed to a one-month pause on his threatened 25% tariffs against Canadian imports. Former Deputy Minister of Trade Tim Sargent, now Director of Domestic Policy and Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, and Expert Group Co-Chair Fen Hampson, examine the truths behind the rationale for the tariffs. “The iron laws of economics and US politics will eventually defeat Trump’s use of tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China,” write Sargent and Hampson. “But it will take time.” Here are Tim Sargent and Fen Hampson with We Have a Tariff Reprieve. Let’s Use it to Firmly Establish the Facts.

From February 1st, deadline day for the Trump tariffs that were paused 48 hours later, career diplomat and Policy contributor Colin Robertson with an invaluable look at the unprecedented nature of Trump’s actions, and the implications for the Canada-US bilateral relationship within a tumultuous global context. “No previous president of the United States,” writes Robertson, “has ever weaponized bilateral trade in violation of all norms, rules and conventions without any consistent, plausible justification.” Here’s Colin Robertson with The Antagonist Next Door: Trump’s Tariffs and Our New Bilateral Reality. 

Also from Colin Robertson on January 27, on how the premiers have been responding to Trump while political leadership at the federal level is in flux. “Answering existential questions such as ‘How best do we defend our sovereignty?’ and ‘How do we diversify our trade?’”, writes Robertson, “should be core considerations in the Liberal leadership campaign and for all parties in the coming election.” Here’s Colin Robertson with Trump 2.0, Week 2: Premiers Matter, Diversify or Die, and Liberalization Begins at Home. 

From NAFTA negotiator and Policy contributor John Weekes, an overview of the unprecedented elements at play in Trump’s latest weaponization of tariffs, and what can be done to minimize its consequences. “Canada needs to look urgently at other ways of strengthening Canadian economic prospects,” writes Weekes, “to restore confidence in Canada, and to rekindle investment.” Here’s John Weekes with his recommendations: Charting Canada’s Economic Course in the Face of Trump’s Threats.

From Expert Group Chairs Perrin Beatty, former President and CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, and Fen Osler Hampson, Chancellor’s Professor and Professor of International Affairs at Carleton University, a look at the principles by which Canada’s response to Donald Trump’s tariff threat should be governed. “The first principle is to ‘do no harm’ to Canadian producers by compounding the pain with export duties and embargoes,” they write. “Let American consumers of our exports howl, as they surely will, when they see what Trump is doing to their pocketbooks.” Here are Perrin Beatty and Fen Hampson with The Opportunity for Canada in Trump’s Tariff Crisis.

Longtime Policy contributor, Business Council of Canada founding president and Expert Group member Thomas d’Aquino brings his decades-long immersion in the deeply enmeshed business community on both sides of the border to Canada’s Carpe Diem Moment. “I believe Canadians owe Trump a vote of thanks,” writes d’Aquino. “For far too long, Canada, with our massive geography and rich natural endowments, has wallowed in complacency.”

Members of the Expert Group on Canada-US Relations: 

Thomas d’Aquino is the founding CEO of the Business Council of Canada and Chair of Thomas d’Aquino Capital. He is also the Chair Emeritus of the North American Forum. He has been a Director of Calgary-based Coril Holdings Ltd. and the Lead Director of Canada’s largest technology provider company, Montreal-based CGI Group Inc. He has also served as a director of Manulife Financial Corporation, and his involvement in the financial services sector has included experience on the advisory boards of investment banks Schroders and Lazard.

Carlo Dade is the Director of Trade and Trade Infrastructure at the Canada West Foundation and one of the country’s leading voices defending and advancing Western Canadian trade interests in Canada and abroad.

Laura Dawson is the Executive Director of the Future Borders Coalition and the former North America Lead at the Amazon Web Services (AWS) Institute. She is also a former Director of the Wilson Centre’s Canada Institute.

Martha Hall Findlay is the Director of the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary. Previously, she was the Chief Sustainability Officer and Chief Climate Officer for Suncor Energy, and before that was President and CEO of the Canada West Foundation and a former Member of Parliament.

Jonathan Fried is a senior adviser with the Albright Stonebridge Group in Washington, D.C., and adviser to Independent Economics Consulting in London, United Kingdom. Before he retired from the government of Canada, he was coordinator for international economic relations and concurrently the personal representative of Prime Minister Trudeau for the G20 from 2017 to 2020.

Lawrence L. Herman is an international trade lawyer with Cassidy Levy Kent LLP (Ottawa & Washington) and Herman & Associates (Toronto). He was previously a member of Canada’s mission to the UN and the GATT and has advocated cases before the Canadian International Trade Tribunal (CITT), NAFTA panels, and Canadian courts.

Gary Mar is President and CEO of the Canada West Foundation and the former President and CEO of the Petroleum Services Association of Canada (PSAC). He has broad experience in government, having served as a member of the Legislative Assembly in the Province of Alberta from 1993 to 2007, and he has held several senior cabinet portfolios.

Mark Norman is Senior Defence Strategist at Samuel Associates and a former Vice Admiral (VADM) and Vice-Chief of Defence, the second-highest appointment in the Canadian Armed Forces.

Vincent Rigby is the Slater Family Professor of Practice and formerly the McConnell Visiting Professor for 2022-2023. He recently retired from Canada’s Public Service after 30 years in senior posts in various departments and agencies across government, including the Privy Council Office, Global Affairs Canada, Public Safety, the Department of National Defence and the former Canadian International Development Agency.

Colin Robertson is a former Canadian diplomat, and Vice President and Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and hosts its regular Global Exchange podcast. He is an Executive Fellow at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University, and a Department of National Defence’s Advisory Board member.

John Weekes is an international trade policy adviser, experienced in trade agreements, and the settlement of trade disputes. From 1991 to 1994, he served as Canada’s chief negotiator for NAFTA. He was ambassador to the GATT during the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations, chair of the GATT Council in 1989 and chair of the Contracting Parties to GATT in 1990.

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