CUSMA signing ceremony at the G20 Buenos Aires, Nov. 30, 2018/White House

Welcome to our Policy series on Trump II, Canada and Trade. The looming review of the Canada-United States Mexico Agreement has already made trade a pre-inaugural irritant, with questions already swirling about CUSMA’s trilateral future and the president-elect’s threatened 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico. As the Trudeau government prepares once again to wade into negotiations over the continental economic partnership born as NAFTA 30 years ago, we have:

From former NAFTA Chief Negotiator John Weekes, we have Musings, Mixed Messages, and Other Unhelpful Preludes to the CUSMA Review, written in the wake of urgings from some Canadian premiers to remove Mexico from CUSMA. “It is certainly premature to be musing about endgame issues such as whether Mexico should be dropped from the partnership,” he writes. Also, Weekes’ remarks at a recent NAFTA conference at El Colegio in Mexico City, which double as a must-read background briefing: A Perspective on the Original NAFTA Negotiations: Lessons for the CUSMA.

From longtime Policy contributing writer Colin Robertson, Canadian Global Affairs Institute fellow and host of the CGAI’s Global Exchange podcast, we have Canada, Mexico and the CUSMA Review: Hanging Together is Better than the Alternative. “As multilateralism gives way to rival trade blocs,” writes Robertson, “why would we give up on what we have already achieved in North America?”

On Donald Trump’s new threat to levy a 25% tariff on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico over border issues, we have longtime Policy contributor and former ambassador to Russia, the EU, the UK and Italy, Jeremy Kinsman with The Trumpian Tariff Trolling Has Begun. “The Canadians have been kidding themselves for months that Canada would get a pass from Trump’s nationalist rampages,” writes Kinsman, “because we are, after all, the friendly neighbour.”

From longtime US politics columnist, Policy Editor and Publisher Lisa Van Dusen, we have Trump, CUSMA, and Our Current Unpleasantness, situating the story within the context of the political, geopolitical and trade trajectories of the past quarter-century. “In trade negotiations as in so many things,” writes Van Dusen, “context is everything.”

From former Privy Council Clerk Kevin Lynch and former White House economic aide Paul Deegan, we have a closer look at how the Trudeau government can get from here to the CUSMA review with Beyond Tariffs: Reconciling Trump’s demands with Canada’s Interests. “With his 25% tariff salvo,” write Lynch and Deegan, “Trump has made it clear that he doesn’t distinguish Molson from Modelo.”

From Policy columnist and longtime former CBC anchor Don Newman, we have Justin Trudeau Should be Making a List…of Retaliatory Tariffs. “In 2018, after Trump imposed tactical tariffs on steel and aluminium as leverage in the CUSMA negotiations, the Trudeau government compiled a list of retaliatory tariffs,” writes Newman. “It worked.”

In background on CUSMA, Trump and trade:

From former Canadian Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Perrin Beatty, June/2023: The Future of the CUSMA is the Future of the North American Idea.

From Policy contributor and former career diplomat Colin Robertson, December/2022: Advocating for Canada’s Trade Interests is a Permanent Campaign.

From Policy Editor Lisa Van Dusen, August 2022: How the World Trade Organization Became a Proxy Battleground.

 

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