Counsel PA

 The following is the first in a series of Policy Conversations between long-time contributing writer and Counsel Public Affairs Senior VP John Delacourt and Cousel PA Account Director Will Shelling — both political and policy professionals and avid US politics junkies — about the 2024 presidential election.

August 29, 2024

John Delacourt: Will, my interest in the pick for Democratic VP, Tim Walz, and how he was connecting with voters, was piqued when I saw a clip of him talking to a group of young football players at a high school in Pennsylvania. And I think we had a similar reaction: this guy is connecting with young male voters in a way that had become very challenging for progressive leaders over the last few years.

As a progressive American who still has deep ties to the US, what do you think this is about, and do you think “Coach Walz” is a phenomenon that will have a long enough tail to last right up until E-Day with young men?

Will Shelling: Something fascinating about the “Coach Walz” persona is that it immediately reminds you of who your coach was in your life; a strong guide during the most critical moments in your life. I think for Walz, he recognizes that at the moment, he presents as a stable and guiding force for young men and an alternative to the “strongman” archetype we’ve seen in politics with CPC Leader Pierre Poilievre, Former President Trump, and JD Vance to a certain extent. Walz is clearly still a strong person, but in a refreshing way that I think is going to give a bunch of young men the opportunity to think differently.

I think his identity as a coach also pulls at the fact that by all accounts, he’s a very normal guy. He’s the thesis of that amiable guy you interact with at the grocery store. He’s a former teacher, spent years coaching high school football, he’s a veteran, and importantly, a hunter. However, he’s staunchly pro-choice, in support of rights for marginalized groups, and even cries, openly, when emotional. Walz, especially for American politics and American men, is a giant contradiction and paradox. In other words, he’s human.

Frankly, his politics is something that I think a bunch of men, especially from Gen X will be surprised to think about especially as they see themselves in Walz. I’m curious about your perspective, both as someone who’s part of Gen X and someone who’s worked in public affairs well before the rise of the Tea Party and MAGA politics. Let me ask the same question back to you, what makes you think that men in Gen X are so attracted to Trump, especially in battleground states, which often are a good bellwether for the way the country is going?

Delacourt: Will, it’s a great question, and one I’ve been reflecting upon since 2016.

I grew up in a small town in Ontario (Milton, which is not at all a small town anymore), the son of two immigrants who were determinedly, aspirationally middle class, yet they were, at root very working class. My father was a foreman at the Ford plant in Oakville, my mother worked several jobs until she started her own business. I mention this because the rise of Trumpism, even though it happened hundreds of miles away across the border, found purchase with many of the guys I grew up with: pool-hall guys, guys whose hockey dreams peaked at Junior B, guys who sold weed from the back seats of their muscle cars in the high school parking lot. Through the 80s and 90s, a lot of these guys did okay with union jobs at the meter plant, or packing cargo in planes at the airport, or in the kind of front-end sales, “always be closing” jobs in financial services and insurance that were thick on the ground in the boom years of the last century. As the momentum gathered with Trump’s first presidential campaign on social media, those were the guys I could have picked out in the crowd at a Trump rally. On Facebook and on Twitter, MAGA branding crossed the border – was proudly, even defiantly proclaimed. A lot of this energy was transformed into the F— Trudeau constituency that occupied Ottawa in the second wave of the pandemic.

During the Trump years, I traveled to states like Minnesota, Illinois and Indiana – mostly for work. It was surprising – but probably shouldn’t have been – how similar the suburbs and smaller towns of those states seemed to those in Ontario. In 2008, Southwestern Ontario manufacturing jobs just evaporated and whole communities changed dramatically.

Anyway, because of how our attitudes were shaped by economic forces that seemed markedly different than those girded by fiscal guardrails of another era, nothing was quite real about politics or about the aspirations that made a Trump. He didn’t represent anything truly malevolent to many of the guys from my high school years. When those on the left/ progressive partisan spectrum spoke of the threat he posed, it was like someone telling you pro wrestling was real. No, it was entertainment! And he seemed an effective, destructive agent to eradicate what for many seemed mendacious claims of government as a force for good. It was kind of the opposite of virtue signaling; it was cynicism-signaling to like him.

In contrast, Walz’s power lies in the fact that he sounds like the last best high school teacher we ever had – or the high school teacher we might have imagined ourselves as being. There is something nostalgic about his faith in government and his belief it can be a force for good. He doesn’t look at women as potential adversaries / agents of control, which is a trope that seems depressingly common in popular culture now. There is an authentic partnership and alchemy happening with Walz and Harris.

But we would not be having this whole conversation about political strategy if there wasn’t a larger question looming in the background, on both sides of the border: what has been happening with young men over the last decade? It really came home for me when I saw this research by Spark Advocacy from earlier this year about Canadian voters showing that “demographically, Trump’s support is stronger among younger people, and especially younger men. Roughly half of men under 45 (52%) say they would vote for Trump. Women 45 and older were the group most likely to support Biden (79%).”

Yes, that’s over half of Canadian men. Given your work with White Ribbon, your advocacy for diversity, equity and inclusion, what do you think is going on here? What could they possibly be seeing in this guy?

Shelling: This is a tough question that’s going to require a nuanced answer. I think a bunch of Gen Z men are feeling anger and frustration with politics and the way that the “game” so to say, has been played. They’re feeling attacked socially as they struggle to learn the nuances of issues related to social justice and gender. They’re feeling like they’re falling behind when it comes to home ownership and getting a good education, like you mentioned with your own generation. They’re feeling like things that were promised to them like a family and security for the future are being eroded. While I think those fears are completely valid, I think their trust is misplaced in Donald Trump. Gen Z men are drawn to Trump for his macho persona but he’s selling them lies. Effectively, we’re seeing more young men and boys radicalized by right wing politics and especially Donald Trump because he is channelling that outrage into votes and at times, violence. That anger is present here, and the progressive left must provide an answer to this outrage. Whether that’s more outrage or joy, but directed in a positive way, I couldn’t tell you.

Curiously, I think that we can both agree that this divide between women and men is going to be a massive discussion point not just in the US election, but in next year’s Canadian election. We’re seeing women breaking more toward progressive parties like the NDP and Democrats, while men are moving more toward the CPC and the Republicans. Women have often decided elections, especially in 2016 when most women voted for Donald Trump. I know that a bunch of women my age have stated that they’re glad Walz is running because he is very much seen as the dad that a generation of American women lost to far-right radicalization.

But an incredible thing about Walz that made him stand out over other top VP picks was that he asked “how can I help?”, which suggests a level of servant leadership that many men may not recognize, especially with women in the lead.

Do you think he can pull more women toward the Democrats? I’m also curious what Canadian leaders, especially Trudeau and Singh, who are admitted feminists, can learn from Walz too.

Delacourt: Will, I’m one of those cranky Liberals who, though both impressed and grateful for all that Trudeau and Singh have done to advance not only gender balance but true gender equity, have sensed a kind of cynicism and dismissiveness about any deeper conversation about what we’re doing to engage and inspire men in the same way. We may be past any Canadian party thinking they can be truly inclusive and not micro-target, riding by riding, their way to victory, and because of this I’ve heard it said, time and again, that what used to be called the “soccer mom” vote would save the Liberals (and perhaps many NDP voters too?).

But that underestimates the attractiveness of Conservative messaging to women of all ages (Abacus has the Conservatives repeatedly winning over close to 40 percent of women voters) and I think the Liberal tactic of repeatedly raising the threat of abortion legislation returning to parliament has, much like their Democrat-cosplaying, borrowing the Dems’ attacks on Republicans (they’re “weird”), has been a dumb move. It seems lazy, inauthentic and indicative of a movement that is manufacturing wedge politics rather than truly addressing why women, younger men from specific communities – all not traditionally Conservative voters – are now warming to the prospect of a Poilievre government.

I think that read of Walz as the dad who wasn’t “lost to far-right radicalization” is an interesting take. It captures the polarization we’ve witnessed over the last decade, and it speaks to a nostalgia for positive politics, an energy that has seemed dormant since even before the pandemic.

And your point about service is even more compelling. The concept of a new patriotism has been percolating for some time in America, I believe. Even “ivory tower” academics like Martha Nussbaum have been advancing this notion, albeit with a qualified sense of how rooted this patriotism must be in “cosmopolitanism.” Walz can authentically attest to living his ideals: they’re rooted in national service, the call of public life. This is what unites his personal story with Harris’s so powerfully, I think. It creates a kind of campaign alchemy that seems serendipitous.

If this phenomenon can catch fire, it might transcend American politics. That’s what I hope for, anyway.

Shelling: Totally — you wrote about this for Policy earlier in August about the incumbency curse. I think Walz provides a blueprint of sorts to bring back a slew of voters who grew disillusioned with the Democrats and with politics. By switching from Biden to Harris and having a completely new face as VP, the Democrats have offered up a formula not just for Canada, but frankly the entire Western political landscape on how a party can adapt at a time when many are directing their emotions toward change.

Delacourt: Agreed. It’s early days still, in this new, revivified campaign, but in the alchemy created by the Harris-Walz combination, complementary narratives of the politics of joy for both a rural and urban electorate, there’s a unifying vision that poses provocative questions for how any party can truly unite all Canadians as well – at a time when our politics has never seemed more polarized.

Recognized as one of the top 100 Lobbyists in Canada by the Hill Times for five consecutive years, John Delacourt leads the federal advocacy team for Counsel Public Affairs, where he is a Senior Vice President. John served in a number of portfolios in three federal Liberal governments, as well as in communications and stakeholder relations in Opposition. He is also the author of five novels and is a regular contributor to Policy magazine. 

Will Shelling is a government relations consultant and New Democrat who specializes in justice, equity, diversity and inclusion. His primary areas of focus are Indigenous affairs, climate change, and Canadian culture. He is also a director for White Ribbon Canada, a national non-profit dedicated to ending gender-based violence by engaging men and masculine people. He was raised in Las Vegas, NV but now lives in Vancouver, BC.