By Don Newman

April 10, 2025

As the campaign for the April 28th federal election passes the halfway mark, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is surely getting frustrated, and worried. The evidence of that concern came this week when he brought former Prime Minister Stephen Harper to his mammoth Edmonton rally.

Usually, big-name party patriarchs are brought out near the end of a campaign to either give the party a final push over the finish line and secure victory, or to “save the furniture” and protect as many seats as possible in a campaign heading for certain defeat.

Poilievre and the Conservatives did neither. They brought out Harper at the mid-point in a campaign, in Edmonton, in Alberta — a province where they should win nearly all the seats, as they have done in every election since most people can remember.

Harper did what he was meant to do. He gave Poilievre a ringing endorsement. He said he preferred the experience of the man who became a junior then mid-level cabinet minister in the final years of his government between 2006 and 2015. Unrealistically but unsurprisingly for a party loyalist, he said he preferred that to the experience of Mark Carney, whom he appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada, then asked to be his finance minister — the top job in the Cabinet — before Carney declined and left instead to be the Governor of Bank of England.

The Albertans bused into the giant hall at the south end of the city roared with approval. But, as at most political rallies, Harper was preaching to the converted. And that underlines the problem Poilievre and the Conservatives are having in this election.

At the midway point in the campaign, the aggregate of public opinion polls gives the Conservatives about 37% support at this writing. That was enough to elect Harper with a majority Government in 2011, but that was also the year the NDP had its strongest showing in history. This year, the problem is that polls show Carney and the Liberals at just over 43% today, but the NDP at 8%.

If those numbers hold, the Liberals will win a majority. There are, of course, two reasons why the Liberals are so far ahead after trailing Poilievre and his Conservatives by as much as 25% for more than a year. Carney has replaced Justin Trudeau as prime minister and Liberal leader, and Donald Trump and his wildly unpredictable economic and tariff policies are now in the White House, waging economic war on Canada and the world.

What if, on the morning of April 29th, Pierre Poilievre is facing a result that significantly limits his prospects as a leader? That question, a downright Shakespearean one given what those prospects were just weeks ago, informs everything he does.

Poilievre and Carney are an interesting contrast. The Liberal leader has flirted around his party and politics for years. But his claim to fame is that he is the only person in the world to have been the governor of the central banks of two G7 countries. As well in the financial crisis of 2008 – 2009 he led a committee of G-20 countries co-ordinating responses to the global economic turmoil.

Born in Fort Smith, in the Northwest Territories, Carney was raised in Edmonton. After completing his initial education there, he went to both Harvard University on a hockey scholarship for his undergraduate degree in economics, then to Oxford for his master’s and PhD. He then worked for American financial giant Goldman Sachs for 13 years before returning to Canada to join the department of Finance, and from there to the Bank of Canada as governor.

Poilievre was born in Calgary. Adopted by two schoolteachers, he was interested in politics from a relatively young age, particularly in the Reform Party as it grew in popularity across the west. He enrolled in Carleton University in Ottawa but suspended his studies to become an aide to Stockwell Day when he led the Canadian Alliance, the successor to Reform, in the early 2000s. He later enrolled at the University of Calgary and completed a BA in international relations.

Unlike some other federal elections, with the New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois showing enough support to influence outcomes, Trump has made this election a binary choice. The question is, “Who can best deal with Trump?” And, at this writing, more than 60% think Carney is best equipped to deal with the U.S. president. At its core and as a ballot question, it’s about leadership.

But Poilievre has another leadership question hanging over his standing in this race.

The Conservatives have one last big chance to switch the direction of this campaign. On April 16, the two frontrunners will debate in French, along with NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet and Green Party co-Leader Jonathan Pedneault. The next day, April 17th, they will debate again in English. If Carney — who has less debating experience than Poilievre, Singh or Blanchet, survives those events the die may be cast for the election.

And if it is, then the Conservative leader will have something else to worry about. Party leaders are often — although not always — given at least two elections to lead their parties to victory. However, after the 2019 election, Conservative leader Andrew Sheer was dumped after reducing the Liberals to a minority. And after the 2021 election, his successor, Erin O’Toole, was bounced within six months after failing to improve the party results thanks to the party’s simplified leadership review process under the Reform Act.

What if, on the morning of April 29th, Pierre Poilievre is facing a result that significantly limits his prospects as a leader? That question, a downright Shakespearean one given what those prospects were just weeks ago, informs everything he does.

For the same reasons voters have expressed more confidence in Carney as an economic crisis manager, if he somehow loses, he’ll likely vault onto the world stage as head of a multilateral institution.

If Poilievre loses, he will not, and he surely must know it. Which is one more reason for him to be frustrated, and worried.

Policy Columnist Don Newman is an Officer of the Order of Canada, and a lifetime member and a past president of the Canadian Parliamentary Press Gallery.