Welcome to our Policy Online series The Road to 2025* — the asterisk representing the possibility of an election call before the scheduled date of October 20, 2025, and the cover image our tribute to the Policy print edition we’re now suspending to focus on our growing Policy Online and The Week in Policy platforms. With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau approaching the milestone of a decade in power, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre enjoying a growth spurt in the polls and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh navigating the tightrope optics of his party’s Supply and Confidence Agreement with Trudeau’s minority government, this cycle’s pre-writ period feels well underway already. We have our usual lineup of stellar expert commentary, informed analysis and engaging prognostication for you:

First off, from longtime Liberal strategist, Counsel Public Affairs Senior VP and our resident novelist, John Delacourt, a look at the “Will he stay or will he go?” question about his former boss, Justin Trudeau, which is different from the “Should he stay or should he go?”/The Clash version of the question more widely logrolled these days. “The fail-safe cliché of any insta-pundit thriving in the X-verse of hot takes without consequences is that 2025 will be a ‘change election’,” Delacourt writes. “They’re all change elections, kids, but I digress.” Here’s John with What Power Reveals: 2015 Trudeau vs. 2025 Trudeau.

From veteran Tory strategist, Earnscliffe Strategies Principal and longtime Policy contributor Geoff Norquay, who has served Conservative leaders and Prime Ministers from Joe Clark to Stephen Harper, a look at the state of play with his party. “What kind of domestic policies must the Conservatives put in the window to consolidate the gains they have made in 2023 and position themselves for the next election?” Click to find out. Here’s Geoff with The Conservatives’ Road to the Next Election: Opportunities and Hazards.

After years of advising NDP leaders federal and provincial — most recently running Wab Kinew’s successful campaign for the Manitoba premiership — Brian Topp, partner at GT & Company, always delivers unique insight wrapped in a great read. “If Singh is to capitalize on the current wave of provincial NDP success, he needs to manage regional views about his confidence and supply accord with Mr. Trudeau,” writes Topp. “Not repudiating the agreement while rejecting a coalition will be helpful (and a neat trick).” Here’s Brian with The NDP-Liberal Dance of Distance.

Just as the 2024 US presidential is — again, because of the candidacy of an aspiring autocrat — the most consequential campaign since the Civil War, the upcoming Canadian federal election could also have wider implications. “The election probably turns most on personal suitability to lead, a choice of styles and evaluations of character,” writes former Canadian Ambassador to Russia Jeremy Kinsman, our longtime international affairs sage. “Incumbents in every democracy are having a tough time with disgruntled publics tired of over-exposed leaders.” Here, the invaluable context of Foreign Policy and the Next Election.

Mirroring the fact that all crises are global these days based on the interconnected nature of communications, information, human mobility, supply chains and strategic corruption, the more organic globalized crisis of climate change impacts just about every other issue in our domestic pre-election context. Polaris Strategy + Insight Principal Dan Woyllinowicz has filed an indispensable analysis of that dynamic. “Policy matters. Politics matters. And every election matters,” writes Dan. Here’s Climate Change Isn’t an Election Issue, It’s an Era.

In keeping with the systemic theme, Policy contributing writer Robin V. Sears looks at Canada’s upcoming election in a time of unprecedented democratic churn across the world. “History offers a clear counter-narrative to this period of peril,” writes Sears, “democracy is resilient and survives.” Here’s Robin with the must-read Democracy and Canada’s Next Election.

As with every federal election, Québec looms large both on the horizon and in the rearview mirror this time, with the three major federal parties and the Bloc Québécois vying for either a reprise of glory past or a new record. McGill Institute for the Study of Canada Director Daniel Béland unspools the reasons why seeing Quebecers as an electoral monolith would be a mistake for them. “Even if he speaks French relatively well, Poilievre is perceived as an outsider by many francophone Quebecers,” writes Béland. “As for anglophones located mainly in the Montreal area, they’re not in the habit of voting Conservative at federal elections.” Here’s Daniel with The Many Electoral Faces of Québec.

Among the thought experiment/political tests that journos enjoy applying to politicians as an unscientific measure of electability is the beer test — “Who would you rather have a beer with?” — which is really about likeability. Our always-brilliant contributing writer Lori Turnbull breaks down the role of likeability in the upcoming federal election with The Politics of Personality: Is Likeability the New White Whale?

The second most-popular parlour game in Ottawa lately — after the myriad betting pools on Justin Trudeau’s career plans — is the “Maple MAGA” debate over whether Pierre Poilievre is Donald Trump “lite”. Pendulum Group founding partner and longtime Policy contributing writer Yaroslav Baran argues that Poilievre’s populism is rooted not in Trumpian opportunism, but in the Canadian tradition of Prairie political preachers. Here’s Yaro with What Kind of Populist is Pierre Poilievre?

No Policy political package would be complete without the wisdom of our favourite columnist, longtime CBC anchor, Rubicon Strategy EVP and Officer of the Order of Canada Don Newman. Here’s Don with Don’t Bet on an Election in 2024.

Enjoy the series and thank you, as always, for reading Policy.

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