By Lori Turnbull

March 5, 2025

Ever since Donald Trump began threatening to impose tariffs on Canadian goods not long after his election victory in November, Canadians have been speculating about his motivations. Does his claim that “tariff” is his favourite word signify an irrational obsession that relates to tariffs in a vacuum of political and economic consequence? Does he really want to use “economic force” to bring Canada to its knees so that it can be more easily coerced into 51st statehood?

Surely, he must realize that putting tariffs on Canadian products that American consumers rely on is no way to solve the affordability crisis for the American people. And surely, he must understand that this will hurt not only Canada but America as well.

Trump has justified his tariffs as necessary in response to Canada’s failure to fix alleged problems at our border that, in his view, have led to the flow of illegal migrants and drugs into the United States (never mind the fact that the U.S. is responsible for policing its own border). But this narrative does not hold water. Judging by his words, actions, and general approach, the tariffs are not about drugs or migrants.

Indeed, at this writing, CBC Washington correspondent Katie Simpson is reporting a day of unprecedented mixed messages emerging from the Trump administration on this question, with the White House press secretary, the vice president and the secretary of commerce providing contradictory clues as to whether this is about fentanyl, trade onshoring or the border.

But based on all the available evidence, it would seem this trade war, like so many of Trump’s choices, is about Trump himself.

Donald Trump has spent most of his life as a businessman, albeit not a consistently successful one. He led several money-losing companies and declared multiple business bankruptcies, but that never stopped him from projecting an image of success. He used his celebrity status and his reputation as a tycoon to launch his political career and, now that he is in power (again), he apparently wants to do business rather than politics. This is where he evidently feels most comfortable and effective, as opposed to in-over-his-head in the world of serious policy, politics, and diplomacy.

In politics, particularly in democratic countries, it’s all about persuasion. Solutions and decisions tend to be based on compromise and reciprocity and, even if there are winners and losers, resources are usually distributed so that there is something for everyone. Democracies balance majority rule against other values like rule of law, respect for minorities, and human rights.

Relationships between countries are about more than competing interests; they are also about shared values, economic partnerships, and joint security ventures.

Power and might do not decide everything. Great powers negotiate with middle powers all the time and do not dictate the outcome just because they are bigger and more heavily resourced. After all, the middle power still has something to bargain with that the great power wants. And sovereign countries respect each other. Relationships between countries are about more than competing interests; they are also about shared values, economic partnerships, and joint security ventures. This has certainly been true throughout the history of the Canada-U.S. relationship.

But Trump doesn’t think like that. He famously sees everything through a “win or lose” lens and he wants to be the winner every time. The fact that the United States imports more from Canada than it sells to us has prompted Trump’s characterization that the U.S. is “subsidizing” Canada and that we are ripping them off. He apparently computes this as meaning that the U.S. is the loser and he wants to correct this. He’s willing to jeopardize the relationship because he’s viewing the “trade deficit” issue as its defining feature.

On top of this, Donald Trump’s musings about Canada becoming the 51st state are frequent enough that we can’t ignore them as motivating factors for him. Given his other statements about buying Greenland and taking over the Panama Canal, we are left to assume that either he has genuine expansionist plans, however absurd they might be, or he sees his role as president of the United States as including a campaign of psychological warfare against his neighbours.

In Trump’s lengthy address to Congress on March 4th, he boasted about having won the popular vote and the swing states in the November election and having signed nearly 100 executive orders and taking over 400 executive actions – a record – since assuming office. He said that “it has been stated by many” that his first month in office has been “the most successful in the history of our nation.” Despite his pride, it apparently got under his skin that the Democrats would not stand or clap for him despite what, in his words, are his “astronomical achievements.”

Trump’s self-obsession is obvious and well documented. It presumably factors into in how he conducts  himself as America’s president. So, what does that mean for Canada? While Trump was disruptive, chaotic and unpredictable in his first term, he now has another election victory under his belt, securing the extension of power he sought and failed to achieve either legally or violently after the 2020 election.

That his behaviour has been significantly more autocratic in this term after only six weeks, and that it reflects his affinity with other autocratic leaders at the expense of America’s traditional allies, indicates that his apparent disregard for the consequences of his policy decisions for anyone other than himself may be about more than his personality.

Whether or when he might change course on his trade war remains to be seen. Meanwhile, Canada will need to do all of the things we have been talking about: diversify our trade partnerships; take down internal trade barriers; and, do more to grow our economy. And if Donald Trump’s choices continue to defy reason, precedent, diplomacy and economic sense, our relationship with the United States may never be the same.

Policy Columnist Lori Turnbull is a professor in the Faculty of Management at Dalhousie University.