Irish Taoiseach Simon Harris says the Irish will go to the polls Nov. 29/AP

By Ben Collins

November 7, 2024

It is no coincidence that the Irish Taoiseach, Simon Harris, chose the day after the US presidential election to announce that he’ll be calling a snap election for November 29th. With the world still processing the improbable return of a Republican president whose last term ended with a deadly assault on the US Capitol, Harris will be appealing to a desire for continuity and stability.

While the election call will happen officially on Friday, after Harris returns from an EU meeting in Budapest, Ireland has been on an election footing for weeks, since Harris declared his intention to call a vote ahead of the five-year deadline in March 2025. By law, elections in Ireland must be held 18 to 25 days after the writs have been issued. So, a far lesser likelihood of leaders being replaced midstream and other surprises of the kind that can disrupt epic American campaigns. In Ireland, it’s possible to call an election and hold an election in the same month.

In Ireland, the ruling coalition of Harris’s Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Greens hopes to be returned to power for another five-year term. We have seen around the world many incumbent governments being voted out by a restless populace still suffering from post-pandemic trauma and frustrated at stubbornly high inflation and cost of living concerns. In Ireland, the governing parties hope to appeal to voters by offering stability at a time of renewed uncertainty amid the re-election of Donald Trump.

Trump’s America First policy and repeated warnings that he will introduce tariffs against other countries pose a particular challenge for an open economy such as Ireland’s. The low level of corporation tax adopted by Ireland has been extraordinarily successful at attracting and retaining foreign direct investment (FDI), especially from the US. While President Joe Biden talked about his desire to see American companies onshore jobs back from abroad, Trump is likely to quickly pressure companies to do so. He may own a golf course in Ireland but his affection for the country is not as deep-rooted as Joe Biden’s, who has arguably been the most Irish of American presidents since JFK – a status apparent during his trip to Ireland and Northern Ireland in April, 2023.

Within Harris’s announcement of a snap election there is also an element of seeking to take advantage of the current difficulties being faced by Sinn Féin, the main party of opposition. The party born as the political arm of the Irish Republican Army and mainstreamed after The Troubles was riding high in the opinion polls, leading nationally with up to 37% support at one stage. It now sits in third place with around 17% support. A number of factors have played into this, including a key part of Sinn Féin’s supporter base becoming increasingly concerned about immigration. Several individual elected representatives have been involved in scandals related to their personal behaviour. The party has been criticized for issues such as the shortage of housing and high costs of rentals, despite the fact that they are not currently in government.

At the same time, Fine Gael have undergone a process of renewal in the eyes of voters since their previous party leader and Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, resigned from office earlier this year. For a party which has been in government continuously since 2011, this has been quite an achievement.

Within Harris’s announcement of a snap election there is also an element of seeking to take advantage of the current difficulties being faced by Sinn Féin.

Fine Gael was formed a century ago from forces favourable to the 1921 Anglo-Irish Treaty that ended the War for Independence and marked the beginning of the Irish Free State, merging three antecedent political organizations; Cumann na nGaedheal, National Centre Party and the National Guard, known as the Blueshirts because of the uniform they wore. The new party was created in 1933, after Cumann na nGaedheal was voted out of government and replaced by Fianna Fáil, a party which was opposed to the Anglo-Irish Treaty, resulting in the partition of Ireland into two states. These two parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, for the next eighty years alternated in government, while both being essentially centre-right conservative parties. They were known as the ‘Civil War’ parties for many years and were considered to be bitter political enemies. Their party members had fought on opposite sides of the Irish Civil War which took place from 1922-23.

In 2016, Fine Gael were unable to form a government on their own and Fianna Fáil for the first time supported them in a confidence and supply arrangement, while remaining formally outside of government. By 2020, the expected return to power by Fianna Fáil was undermined by a surprising increase in votes for Sinn Féin, which received more than any other party. As a result, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael agreed to formally share power in government and have a rotating Taoiseach arrangement. Since then the two parties have become increasingly comfortable sharing power and their voters regularly transfer their votes between the two parties. This works well for the Dáil (equivalent to the Canadian House of Commons) elections which are run through a proportional representation system known as STV (Single Transferable Vote).

In Ireland, there is a significant shortage of housing and while the outgoing government has made some progress on this, much more needs to be done, urgently. The health care system, like many others in the developed world, is under pressure with rapidly increasing demand outpacing increased levels of investment. Unlike Canada or the UK, in Ireland citizens often have to pay directly for some of their health care costs. However, the recent Irish budget was, especially in comparison to the British one, a pre-election giveaway budget. In addition, the government was able to indicate that billions will now be set aside into a sovereign wealth fund which can be invested into long-term projects.

There are also real concerns about Ireland’s young people continuing to leave the country for places such as the USA, Canada and Australia. This is due to the high cost of living in Ireland, the lack of available housing and perceived lack of opportunities. Immigration and the related pressure on services is increasing as an issue of concern. Ireland has commendably, on a pro-rata basis, taken more Ukrainian refugees than most European countries. But Ireland has seen immigration rise as an issue of concern, just as Canada has done.

Sinn Féin have stated their desire to lead a government of the left and to exclude both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil from government for the first time since the foundation of the state. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have indicated that they intend to form a government without the participation of Sinn Féin.

On the basis of current opinion polls, it is widely expected that Fine Gael will be returned as the largest party, closely followed by Fianna Fáil. The Greens, as the junior party in the coalition government, have seen their support decline significantly and may be unable to contribute to a new coalition government.  To ensure a government with a stable working majority, it is likely that a third party will be sought to join a new coalition government, if Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are returned to the levels indicated by current opinion polls. There may also be support provided by a number of independents.

But as the 2020 Irish election and Tuesday’s US presidential election have shown, no government can take its voters for granted.

Ben Collins is a Belfast-based communications consultant and author of the book Irish Unity: Time to Prepare.