By Don Newman

February 8, 2025

“Never let a good crisis go to waste,” Winston Churchill quipped during the Second World War. Now, it is time for Canadians to remember and repeat it.

We are almost one week into the 30-day pause President Donald Trump agreed to on the 25% tariffs he has threatened on all Canadian exports to the United States except energy, to be tariffed at 10%. Because the tariffs would cripple our economy, Canada is still trying to avoid them, but has also started the process of diversifying the Canadian economy to be more self-sufficient internally and to develop export markets beyond the United States.

There are at least four things we must do in this country to try and protect ourselves from something that is a recent threat but could well be a continuing one. The first two are relatively easy to accomplish, the other two will require political will and leadership to use this crisis as an opportunity.

First, the easy ones:

1. Move quickly to reduce if not fully remove barriers to interprovincial trade. This is something on which progress is already being made, with some predicting changes could be coming within 30 days.
2. Move as quickly as is feasible to increase our defence spending to at least the NATO minimum of 2% of GDP. That will require dramatic improvement in our procurement processes. For instance, none of the dozen surface warships approved in 2012 by the Harper government have yet to be delivered. If this continues, the ships will be obsolete before they put to sea.

Now, for the hard part:

1. The Federal government must screw up its political courage to get not one but two pipelines built as quickly as possible. The first is Northern Gateway, the natural gas pipeline transporting gas from Alberta to the Pacific coast. The second is Energy East, moving Alberta energy through Canada to Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes. Proposals for both have on the books for years but each was abandoned in the face of either Indigenous opposition or pushback in Quebec. Northern Gateway would open markets for Canadian gas in Asia and reduce reliance on markets in the United States. Energy East would provide security of supply to Ontario and Quebec and the possibility of exporting Canadian oil from New Brunswick to Europe or South America. Most Canadians are not aware, but much of the oil consumed in Ontario and Quebec is transported via a pipeline that goes through the United States. Enbridge’s Line 5 moves Western Canadian oil across the continent, dipping down through Wisconsin and Michigan into Sarnia, Ont., which means it is vulnerable to increasingly volatile U.S. politics. Indeed, Michigan’s Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, has tried to shut it down.
2. Canada must put a legal ring around the critical minerals and rare earth deposits in our country, those currently being minded or those potentially developed in the Ring of Fire in Ontario. These are the minerals crucial to development of electric batteries for cars and other new-economy applications. The ownership of these deposits must be restricted to Canadians and the export of these minerals must be controlled. A national board for minerals and rare earth must be created on the model of the National Energy Board.

This week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hosted a Canada-US economic summit in Toronto to consult on how Canada can respond to the situation in which we find ourselves. One of the major topics was the reduction of interprovincial trade barriers.

But the real news came from comments the prime minister made when he thought only the invited people in the room could hear him. He said his discussions with President Trump had convinced him the real objective for harassing Canada with tariffs was to force this country into joining the United States; that Trump’s comments about Canada being the 51st state are neither a joke nor gaslighting — they are, the prime minister said, “the real thing.” Which re-frames the use of fentanyl and illegal immigrants as rationales for the tariffs. That appears to be a ruse.

Trump wants to take over Canada to exploit our rare earth and critical mineral deposits. That makes asserting Canadian control of these deposits even more important.

By any measure, the new information from Trudeau defines this turning point in our bilateral relationship as a crisis. Faced with with this reality, it’s time for Canada to make sure that it won’t go to waste.

Policy Columnist Don Newman is an Officer of the Order of Canada, and a lifetime member and a Past President of the Canadian Parliamentary Press Gallery.