Lori Turnbull

August 21, 2021

The Nova Scotia provincial election turned out to be a “change” election in many ways. First and most obviously, the government changed hands: Iain Rankin and the Liberals were defeated and will be replaced by a majority Progressive Conservative government under Tim Houston’s leadership. The opinion polls conducted during the campaign did not predict this outcome; even the day before the vote, pollsters were still putting the Liberals ahead in the popular vote but only by a couple of points. The vote count revealed a shift in public support towards the Progressive Conservatives, who won 31 of 55 seats and 38.4 percent of the popular vote.

Regardless of who formed the government, the legislature was always going to be transformed by this election. Thirteen Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) did not re-offer, including several high-profile Liberal ministers who had been appointed to cabinet by former Premier Stephen McNeil. The decline of the incumbency factor meant that more ridings were open to change. Speaking of incumbents, four ministers were defeated, including Finance Minister Labi Kasoulis and former Health Minister Randy Delorey. Both were candidates for the leadership of the party after McNeil stepped aside. When several ministers lose their seats, it suggests a resounding defeat of the governing party; however, the Liberals actually held onto 36.6 percent of the popular vote. It wasn’t that there was no support for the Liberals; it’s that Liberal candidates came first in only 17 ridings.

The cohort of MLAs that were elected will make up what is perhaps the most diverse legislature in Nova Scotia’s history. The political parties made a significant effort to ensure that the ballot was more diverse and inclusive. Thanks to their efforts and those of the candidates and voters, there are now four Black MLAs and 20 women, though there remains a notable absence of Mi’kmaq MLAs. There were two Mi’kmaq candidates, however, and at least six candidates who use “they” as a pronoun.

Four protected ridings were added to the legislature, bringing the total number of constituencies and seats to 55. These ridings were introduced in 1993 and are meant to provide for the effective representation of the Acadian and African Nova Scotian communities in the province. They were eliminated in 2012, when the NDP government at the time concluded that there were too few people in each of the ridings. They were reinstated in 2019 following a report from an independent boundaries commission.

Voter turnout was roughly 55.5 percent, which is not as low as the 2017 election but it’s not great. There was always a concern that turnout in this election would be low, given that people might be less inclined to vote in the summer, during a pandemic. Plus, at the beginning of the campaign, a Liberal win seemed a foregone conclusion. The sense that the result is inevitable can have the effect of dampening voter interest and engagement. But as the weeks went on and the Liberal campaign seemed to lack the momentum of the other parties, it is possible that more voters tuned in and cast ballots, thereby avoiding an even worse turnout.

Though the Nova Scotia campaign was sleepy in spots, it showed in the end that a government’s pandemic record won’t guarantee a return to office — no matter how impressive it is.

Rankin insists that he will stay on as Liberal leader, at least for now. If the leadership race that selected him is any indication, there is no one in the wings eager to take the position. When McNeil announced his intent to resign, the airwaves were eerily quiet. For weeks, no one emerged as a candidate, and eventually three of McNeil’s ministers put their names forward. Rankin is an experienced MLA and will provide some stability as the party rebuilds. On the opposition side, he will be flanked by caucus members including Kelly Regan, Derek Mombourquette, Patricia Diab, Tony Ince, Keith Irving, Zach Churchill, and Brendan Maguire — all of whom were part of his cabinet. If they all stick around, this is solid bench strength for Rankin to rely on in his new role of holding the government to account.

Gary Burrill and the NDP have some strategic decisions to make. Their campaign focused on the affordable housing crisis in Nova Scotia and the need for rent control to ensure that there are affordable housing options at all income levels. A scan of Twitter, Facebook, and news articles would suggest that their message resonated with many people, but they picked up only one seat in this election and their percentage of the popular vote actually dropped half a point as compared with the 2017 election. The electoral system is no friend to them; they split the vote with the Liberals in a few key metro ridings where their position on rent control attracted significant support, but not enough to beat the Liberal candidates. In order to gain more ground in the future, they will continue to focus on urban rather than rural ridings.

On August 31^st, the new government will be sworn in and we will learn who will populate Houston’s cabinet. Houston has indicated that he will define his own success by making sure more Nova Scotians have family doctors. On that note, it will be interesting to see who he appoints as his minister of health. Also, he has a challenge in that, although this election resulted in a record number of African Nova Scotian MLAs, none of them is in the Progressive Conservative caucus. Some suggest he should appoint someone from outside his caucus to be the Minister for African Nova Scotian Affairs, whether from another caucus or outside the House altogether.

Though the Nova Scotia campaign was sleepy in spots, it showed in the end that a government’s pandemic record won’t guarantee a return to office — no matter how impressive it is.

Campaigns and leadership matter. The federal campaign has the effect of juxtaposing Houston’s brand of conservative politics with Erin O’Toole’s. The former identifies as a progressive red Tory, while the latter is using this campaign to define himself and his brand. While the Progressive Conservative win won’t necessarily translate into a bump for O’Toole, it suggests that the incumbency effect of the pandemic is over and voters are willing to vote for change.

Contributing Writer Lori Turnbull is Director of the School of Public Policy at Dalhousie University.