Jagmeet Singh’s leadership of the New Democratic Party has settled into a combination of style and substance that has quietly re-branded the party for a new generation while still hewing to the political principles of his antecedents. As Singh juggles all the usual demands of leadership plus the intricacies of his confidence deal with prime Minister Justin Trudeau, veteran strategist and longtime NDP observer Robin Sears maps out Singh’s leadership landscape.

Robin V. Sears

Every successful political leader needs to be a proficient juggler, synchronizing their narrative grasp on the caucus, the activist base, the media, and, last but not least, the opposing jugglers.

For a federal NDP leader, there’s another ball to handle: getting anyone to pay attention. There is always a tendency for the media, and therefore the Canadian public, to write off Canada’s social democrats in what is most easily defined as a two-way combat between Tories and Liberals. 

None of an NDP leader’s choices on effective pushback against this simplistic view is without risk. They can shout louder and make more outlandish claims and promises, and risk being seen as a lefty Maxime Bernier. They can cast themselves as the only real people’s party set against the indistinguishable defenders of the rich, Liberals and Conservatives. This got a little strained under Stephen Harper. It invites ridicule in casting Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre as peas from the same pod. 

They can try attack politics, pouring scorn and derision on the character of their opponents, their integrity, and the tendency to corruption of the two opposing leaders. Such attack politics were re-invented in the modern era by Preston Manning, honed by Mike Harris, and perfected by Stephen Harper. Angry invective pumped Poilievre into the leadership. Tories are best at it, Liberals sometimes are, New Democrats never. Always squeamish about mudslinging, and a disapproving base, it is not in their toolbox. 

Successfully juggling among these not-entirely-satisfactory choices is what distinguishes an NDP leader of greatness — Tommy, David, Ed and Jack, as they are always known to partisans — from all the others. Jagmeet Singh has an additional challenge. He needs to keep juggling while walking a very long tightrope. His relationship with his parliamentary partner, Justin Trudeau, requires a delicate balance between effective critic and savvy policy deliverer.

Singh’s partisans appear to be mostly satisfied with his balancing act. Shifting between attacks on the Liberals always-dilatory delivery of promises, and claiming credit when they finally deliver half a loaf seems, so far, to be acceptable to most New Democrats.

The media are less kind. Several columnists have recently wondered aloud about the need for an NDP at all. Sadly, many Canadian news organizations have fallen into an American-style pugilistic lens on politics — who lands the most savage punches, who inflicts the greatest pain in the boxing ring, is the political winner. The traditional and more authentic approach to political analysis: who makes the best case for change, who shifts public opinion to support a key policy, who, in the end, delivers competently, loses out to the one who employs the most viral rhetorical tactics. 

Singh took a massive gamble on his confidence deal with Justin Trudeau. It is still not clear whether it was wise. He will be able to claim, by the time of the next election, that once again New Democrats, with a knife to Liberal throats, have delivered the latest policy change of greatest benefit to working Canadians: universal dental care. The challenge is that most Canadians do not know that the CCF/NDP created old-age pensions, Medicare, anti-corruption election law, childcare and a dozen other victories Liberals claim as their own.

To New Democrats’ fury, it rarely seems to hurt them. This time may be a little easier for Singh, as the Trudeau government is now infamous for its preference for political theatre over governing competently, let alone delivering. He, not Trudeau, will be the dental care pioneer.

If he deems it wise, Singh may defeat the government on an issue of Liberal treachery in one policy domain or another. He could join every other party determined to sack Trudeau over the inevitable next Liberal political scandal involving a privileged politician prioritizing private interest over public good. The next big test will come in the spring, if the Liberals fail to deliver on climate or health care in their next Budget

Today, however, there is a new variable — Pierre Poilievre as Conservative leader. Poilievre has been characterized as a politician who has never deviated from his principles, sticking to the same small government, low-tax mantra for many years. More likely is that we will soon see Poilievre the chameleon emerge. 

Following his victory, Poilievre began dropping his appeals to belligerence, his touting of Bitcoin as inflation protection, his buy-in to Davos as the head of a global conspiracy, and his threats against the independence of the Bank of Canada. He is now attempting a post-leadership shift to a more adult form of politics, at least minimally grounded in fact and reality. The specifics of how he would achieve higher growth, lower taxes, and a smaller government may never be clear, but Poilievre’s most serious weakness is climate. So far, he appears no more serious about this pivotal file for younger voters than his three predecessors. It could defeat him.

If he were to follow Brian Mulroney and Jean Charest’s advice on big-tent politics combined with a serious commitment to re-building party unity, he will be more of a threat to both the orange and red teams. He would be wise to drop his phony battle with Canadian journalism. As Tory leaders from John Diefenbaker to Stephen Harper learned to their cost: if you unite all the giant news organizations against you, you will lose. Poilievre has pushed the tactic a step further: the media is not just biased, they are the enemy. He has yet to mimic Trump further by declaring the mainstream media “the enemy of the people.”

All three leaders are joined in a common struggle for the same slice of voters: aggrieved and cynical Canadians who have given up on political engagement. O’Toole’s and Poilievre’s efforts to paint conservatism as a natural ally of the working class strained credulity. Perhaps the Tory leader could tempt some of these voters — as Doug Ford did — by handing out cash to every driver in Canada. Given the Tories’ history on issues from the minimum wage to the social safety net, the “friend of the workers” tagline will be a tough sell. Reagan and Trump did it, Harper almost did, so the potential for a major class re-alignment in Canadian politics is far from improbable.

Singh faces a new and more difficult juggling act as well: of relations between the federal party and its provincial cousins. He has permitted friendly fire from NDP candidates at both the federal and provincial levels against the NDP government in B.C., and last month the Saskatchewan NDP delivered the most egregious insult to their federal cousins of all, banning Singh from attending the provincial party convention. 

In Alberta, Singh previously juggled the pro- and anti- pipeline views in the party for then-Premier Rachel Notley with some success. A likely return of an NDP government in Alberta next year will make the juggling more difficult again. The likely new Ontario party leader, former federal party president, Marit Stiles will soon make known her determination to maintain party unity among Ontario New Democrats, federally and provincially. Her quid pro quo, like Horgan’s and Notley’s, will be “no surprises” — no public attacks from either side, active ongoing consultation between the leaders, and real consequences for those who break with party unity.

So, Singh has more balls to juggle than any other leader. He also has several assets that are not well known. He has proved unflappable and authentic in moments of crisis, from Trudeau’s blackface fiasco to being spat at by white supremacists. Steady, confident leadership in a crisis is an invaluable political foundation.

Secondly, he is now a well-seasoned leader with two campaigns under his belt and a strong, devoted team surrounding him. He has learned to be a better listener than when he first arrived. Finally, he is genuinely likable. Few who encounter him come away other than charmed.

It will be an interesting political winter in federal politics. The performance of the three leaders will potentially set the political stage for many years after their own departures. If Poilievre gives up his unity stance, the party could again split. If Trudeau continues down his increasingly harsh partisan path, Liberal defeat and long-term decline may once again return. Additionally, the federal Liberal powerhouses — Ontario and Quebec — today have provincial cousins on life support. 

Singh has shown himself to be an increasingly adept juggler. It is hard to see him being bumped into dropping a ball. Now, he just has to deliver another two years of flawless performance.  

Contributing Writer Robin V. Sears, former national director of the NDP during the Broadbent years, is an independent consultant specializing in crisis communications, based in Ottawa.