By Don Newman

September 4, 2024

For his sake, I hope federal New Democratic Leader Jagmeet Singh   doesn’t receive a letter from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre telling him he should jump off the Peace Tower to see if he can fly.

Because based on the evidence, he might just try and do it. Singh announced Wednesday that he is terminating the Supply and Confidence Agreement between his party and the Liberal government of Justin Trudeau, an agreement that has kept the Liberals in power with a minority government since it was signed in 2022.

Last week, Poilievre wrote a public letter to Singh urging him to terminate the agreement and force an election. The agreement was to run until June of 2025, four months before the next scheduled fixed-date election. It is clear why the Conservatives — coasting with a 15-20 point lead in polls for months now — wanted the agreement terminated. It opens up the very real possibility that the Conservatives, Bloc Québécois and the New Democrats will now vote together on a confidence motion to defeat Trudeau and his nine-year-old government in the House of Commons and send the country into a general election.

Poilievre wants an election very badly. The state of play at press time is that his party, in the latest Abacus poll, is at 42% support, compared with the Liberals at 25 and the NDP at 18. So, why would Singh think it was a good idea to kill the deal that has provided stability to a minority government for the past two and a half years?

In the short term, it takes some pressure off the NDP leader. The Supply and Confidence agreement has never had the wholehearted support of New Democrats — either those in the Parliamentary caucus in the House of Commons or in the party more widely. As the Liberals have been declining in support, those New Democrats opposed to the deal have been increasingly vocal in their opposition. The NDP caucus is meeting before the House of Commons resumes on September 16 and the deal with the Liberals would certainly be a contentious issue. Now it won’t be.

Perhaps ironically, it will help cement Justin Trudeau’s position as leader. With the possibility of an election around every corner, it becomes increasingly difficult to change leaders.

But going forward, terminating the deal might prove embarrassing to the NDP in the longer run. One reason the party signed on, was that they did not want an election but wanted to criticize the Liberals. Before the agreement, the party would be in the awkward position of criticizing, then watering its wine on confidence matters with the Liberals to keep the House of Commons going. Now, the New Democrats are back in that position unless they want to try their luck in a general election from 15% in the polls.

While the agreement was in effect, the New Democrats had real power. Without the deal, it is unlikely Canadians would have government-sponsored dental insurance still being rolled-out across the country. The same is true for the nascent pharmacare program. The Supply and Confidence Agreement gave the New Democrats real policy influence in the House of Commons and by extension throughout the country. Now they have traded that influence for one political power. The power to blow up the government and force an election in which they, as well as the Liberals, will lose seats.

The loss of the Supply and Confidence Agreement also brings a new day for the Liberals. Perhaps ironically, it will help cement Justin Trudeau’s position as leader. With the possibility of an election around every corner, it becomes increasingly difficult to change leaders. Trudeau has been insisting that he will lead the Liberals into the next election, and it now appears that he will.

As for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives? They are now closer to getting the election they want. Poilievre says it should be a “Carbon Tax Election” on the Liberals’ controversial tax to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  But after a second summer in which fires destroyed record numbers of hectares of forests and the postcard Alberta town of Jasper was devastated, running against environmental programs may not be as good an idea as it once seemed.

Still, the page has turned. Parliament returns later this month. How long it will stay in session, no one can say.

Contributing Writer and columnist Don Newman, an Officer of the Order of Canada and lifetime member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery, is Executive Vice President of Rubicon Strategy, based in Ottawa.