Defence Minister Bill Blair addressing the Halifax International Security Forum/HFX 

By Colin Robertson

November 23, 2023

In the 14 years since it was launched in 2009, the Halifax International Security Forum has come to rival the Munich Security Conference among major global gatherings on defence and security policy. HFX, as it is known to delegates, brings representatives from existing and aspiring democracies together for a weekend of substantive discussion and debate with an unabashed bias toward defending the rules-based international order.

The HFX aims to defend and advance democracy in the belief that collective security is the best means of accomplishing those goals. As a forum for informed discussion and debate among those in a position to influence outcomes, it consistently meets and surpasses its objectives.

This year, the mood at the Halifax Westin was less circumspect than tense, with the war in Ukraine that gave last year’s HFX such a sense of urgency now compounded among global security threats by events in the Middle East.

In recent years, the opening plenary address has been delivered by Canada’s defence minister, as the senior security representative of the host country.

This year, Bill Blair, the former Toronto Police Chief and federal public safety minister who became minister of defence in July, told us that his priorities were modernizing NORAD; supporting Ukraine with arms and money; increasing our NATO contribution via announcing more money for the Halifax-based Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic; putting more ships and planes into the Indo-Pacific via announcing Lieutenant-General Derek Macaulay as the next Deputy Commander of the United Nations Command in Korea. Chief of Defence Staff General Wayne Eyre later told the Forum it will be a “challenge to sustain Canada’s frigates operating in the Indo-Pacific as the military balances its resources”.

Blair was forthright about the need to back our defence aspirations with resources and investment, acknowledging that the current fiscal environment makes that more difficult.

Blair, who brought with him the biggest delegation of Canadian parliamentarians in HFX history, stayed through the conference, holding meetings with visiting NATO member leaders as well as the US delegation, which included the congressional group led by Senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and James Risch (R-ID), former secretary of commerce Penny Pritzker, recently appointed as special representative for Ukraine’s economic recovery, and Charles Flynn, US Army Commander in the Pacific.

If ‘Victory in Ukraine’ was the all-embracing theme of the conference, evolving events in Israel and Gaza also dominated panels and discussions, drawing pro-Palestinian demonstrators to the hotel. Corridor discussions, however, inevitably turned to what happens if Donald Trump wins next year’s presidential election. To this question, there is no answer but plenty of fear and trepidation on the part of America’s allies. As one participant put it, chaos was bad but organized retribution would be worse. Climate change also figured, notably as a growing security concern given its role in destabilizing patterns of migration, food security and drought.

Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zelenska set the tone for the dominant discussion, arguing in an essay written for the Forumthat “If Ukraine ceases to resist the Russian aggressor, the war will not stop; it will only escalate globally.”

The amoral darkness of Putin’s Russia was amplified by Evgenia Kara Murza, the articulate wife of dissident Vladimir Kara-Murza, now in a Siberian prison camp for 25 years. As she told us, he is there for “stating the fact: the Russian state is leading a criminal war of aggression against Ukraine and is using repression against tens of thousands of Russian citizens to prevent them from exercising their right to free speech guaranteed by the Russian Constitution.” Her message was clear: “Vladimir Putin is not a leader but a bully, and if we want peace, this bully needs to be stopped.”

If ‘Victory in Ukraine’ was the all-embracing theme of the conference, evolving events in Israel and Gaza also dominated panels and discussions, drawing pro-Palestinian demonstrators to the hotel.

The Ukrainian contingent’s message was equally clear: sustain the vital flow of arms and money. They recognize that media attention has shifted to events in Gaza and that there is both fatigue and less optimism among their Western donors, reflecting the lack of progress on the battlelines and the acknowledgement by Ukraine’s top general that the war is in ‘stalemate’.

There is a divide among those in Eastern Europe, especially the Baltics, who feel commitment slides as you go westward. A former Baltic leader told us in a private session that the next NATO Secretary General (Jens Stoltenberg steps down next year) should come from Eastern Europe and from a nation that meets the NATO 2% spending target (effectively ruling out retiring Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte and Canada’s Chrystia Freeland).

NATO recognizes the need to improve and better coordinate defence production but the corridor talk at HFX was about the lack of movement within the alliance to do so and the acknowledgement that only the US has this capacity.

While the Republicans in the visiting congressional delegation were confident that funding to continue arming Ukraine, as well as Israel, would materialize, they drew the line at reconstruction, arguing that this should come from Europe. Pritzker, as President Biden’s envoy on the issue, set out her plan arguing that besides rebuilding infrastructure and addressing corrupton, looking after the veterans and an estimated 14 million refugees will be essential.

The tone for the animated discussions on Israel and Gaza was set at the outset in a spirited back and forth between the former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak and PBS correspondent Nick Schifrin.

A feisty Barak, who, at 81, clearly still has fire in his belly, told us that waging war against Hamas must continue until Hamas is destroyed. “We have to finish it”. But Barak, who is no fan of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, also said that while the time “is not right” to pursue a two-state solution, creating a sovereign Palestinian state remains the only pathway to peace if Israel is to remain a Jewish democratic state.

China continued to figure prominently and the Forum’s 2020 China handbook is still relevant. Forum President Peter van Praagh coined the term CRINKs as an acronym for China, Russia, Iran and North Korea; perhaps the new “Axis of Evil”, as disruptors who are determined to subvert and undermine the democracies.

For the Americans, China is the principal threat and the Indo-Pacific the main theatre. The presence of the Taiwanese delegation, as well as exiled Uyghurs and those from Tibet and Hong Kong, reminded us of Beijing’s ongoing repression and human rights abuses.

The biggest domestic takeaway coming out of the forum is Canada’s defence spending. It is insufficient to meet the challenges of our times and our situation.

For over a decade the Forum has partnered with IPSOS in tracking public opinion on threat perception in 27 countries. There is broad consensus (82% globally and 83% in Canada) that over the last year, the world has become more dangerous. If fear of a major health epidemic topped the list in the last couple of years, this year it is concern about a major natural disaster, followed by fear of cyberattacks. More unsettling is the broad public skepticism about the ability of governments to deal with threats.

In addressing that skepticism, the Trudeau government has long promised to do more in support of democracy including the creation of an institute for ‘peace, order and good government’. Rather than re-invent the wheel, they would do better to put more resources into HFX. It has achieved world-class recognition for the conference as well as its innovative programs such as its Peace with Women Fellowship.

The fellowship, now in its sixth year, brings senior women officers in NATO together for a six-week program that participants tell me is changing their professional lives for the better. There is also the John McCain Prize for Leadership in Public Service, awarded this year to the people of Israel. It was accepted by Lital Lesham of ‘Brothers and Sisters in Arms’, an NGO of Israeli Defense Forces reservists founded to protest the Netanyahu government’s judicial reforms.

A new program, 15@15, began this year — the 15^th anniversary of the forum — aimed at 15 year-olds who make a 15-second video about one positive change they would like to see within the next fifteen years to make their world more secure. Like the forum itself, these programs work and incrementally advance the democratic spirit while bearing the imprint of the maple leaf.

The biggest domestic takeaway coming out of the forum is Canada’s defence spending. It is insufficient to meet the challenges of our times and our situation. There is a debate within cabinet and caucus that pits a doughty few – Bill Blair, Melanie Joly, Francois-Philippe Champagne, Anita Anand and perhaps Chrystia Freeland – against those led by Mr. Trudeau who prioritize spending on social justice. As the Fall Economic Statement revealed, social justice wins hands down. But social justice requires prosperity and prosperity requires the stability that only deterrence and a strong defence can insure. The premiums for that insurance have gone way up in today’s world.

We rely and depend on the shield provided by a continental defence arrangement for which the Americans pay the lion’s share. Even then we shirk on what we should pay for NORAD modernization. It irks the Biden team just as it irked the Obama administration and their predecessors.

Freeloading only goes so far. We should prepare to be assessed a ‘protectorate’ tax, especially if Mr. Trump is returned to office next year. As anyone who attends the Halifax Security Forum can attest, we cannot say we were not warned.

But at a time when Canada is once again defining its role in a fast-changing world, this year’s HFX — a meeting of minds held in a place beyond the great powers — stimulated fact-based discussion, fresh thinking and ideas about the security challenges facing the democracies.

Contributing Writer Colin Robertson, a former career diplomat, is a fellow and host of the Global Exchange podcast with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute in Ottawa.