In the ecosystem — both literal and metaphorical — of interconnected natural, social and economic components impacted by climate change, agriculture is among the most consequential. If governments fail to adapt farming to climate change, food insecurity will become an additional driver of climate-related catastrophe. McGill University’s Jodey Nurse explores the fundamentals of that risk.

Jodey Nurse

The impact of climate change on agriculture is among the most significant concerns facing Canada. Agriculture is a major contributor to the Canadian economy. However, the success of the sector has been in large part due to farmers’ reliance on abundant natural resources, including fertile soils, accessible water sources, and a relatively stable climate.

But as changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, more frequent extreme weather events, and transformations in the length of growing seasons continue to develop, policymakers will have to determine what supports are needed in a sector that will undoubtedly be volatile in the years ahead. The policies and programs implemented now, and in the near future, will have far-reaching consequences, not just for Canada, but for the world.

While some science-based modelling studies have suggested that modest increases in temperature and CO2 effects may benefit the yields of some of Canada’s crop production, researchers also recognize that climate projections remain unclear and that the findings of the current crop models also necessitate caution due to the unpredictability of external factors.

Indeed, recent research has failed to convincingly challenge older findings that indicate the agricultural benefits to Canada that might result from a rise in temperature are likely negligible and highly uncertain. The consensus among those studying climate change and agriculture is that the aggregate world impacts of climate change will be negative for agricultural production, and although the world’s developing countries will be those most seriously harmed by global warming, developed countries like Canada will also be negatively impacted.

Agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to its sensitivity to a range of climatic events, including fluctuations in temperature. Unpredictable and shifting temperature changes can increase late frost damage if warmer temperatures lead to the premature growth of crops. This is particularly concerning for perennial crops such as fruits and berries, which require a long growing season to produce a high yield. Another concern is the increased insect pest and disease pressures that are projected to occur as temperatures rise. Although some regions in Canada may benefit from a milder climate and increased growing seasons, the risks posed by warmer temperatures are significant.

Precipitation patterns, which are also changing in Canada, are another important issue. Some regions are already experiencing more frequent droughts, while others are experiencing more intense rainfalls. Last year, British Columbia experienced a severe drought, following devastating floods just the year before. These extreme weather events only further devastated communities that have become increasingly susceptible to unpredictable weather patterns caused by climate change.

Beyond the obvious impact these events have had on agricultural production by creating water stress during periods of drought and soil erosion and nutrient loss during intense rains, the heartbreaking stories of hundreds of thousands of dead livestock discovered in the flooded regions of BC and the loss of livelihoods among generational farm families who were unable to recover from the financial costs incurred, have further underscored the terrible consequences of global warming. Indeed, extreme weather events such as floods, wildfires and storms are becoming more frequent and severe in Canada due to climate change and these events have and will continue to cause significant harm to agricultural crops, livestock, farm infrastructure, and farm families in the years to come.

Amid rising food prices and agricultural market instability, scholars have noted how the turn to greater trade liberalization and other policies since the 1980s have increased volatility in food markets.

Research into the mitigation measures that might help shield Canadian agriculture from some of the worst impacts of climate change has continued in earnest. Various measures are being pursued, including actions aimed at improving soil health and water management and the development of more resilient crop varieties, such as those bred to be more drought-tolerant, pest-resistant and cold-hardy. These will help to maintain yields in the face of changing conditions and determine which policy interventions might create more climate change-resilient agriculture infrastructures.

However, many believe that the largely voluntary mitigation measures being advocated are not enough. Organizations like Farmers for Climate Solutions (FCS) recognize that the federal government’s investment in the On-Farm Climate Action Fund, which is aimed at encouraging farmers to adopt practices that can help store carbon and lower greenhouse gas emissions, is an important step towards lowering greenhouse gases and advancing more climate-resilient farms and food production practices.

But the organization also notes that Canada’s investment in environmental programs in agriculture represents only a small fraction of similar investments made by the United States and the European Union on a per-acre basis. The existing funding appears insufficient to support farmers and other stakeholders in their efforts to develop, operate, and maintain sustainable farming systems.

And of course, just what practices are considered truly sustainable remains debated. Most farmers agree that actions can be taken to reduce greenhouse gases, such as reduced tillage and improved manure management, and that increased carbon sequestration can occur through practices such as cover cropping and agroforestry, but some question whether these measures are enough to alter a productionist food regime heavily reliant on fossil fuels.

Others suggest that the proposed changes to conventional farm practices will hinder efforts to meet the growing food needs of an expanding global population. And while the federal government has invested in initiatives, such as the Canadian Agri-Food Sustainability Initiative (CASI), that are meant to encourage greater sustainability and build public trust through the sharing of knowledge in the agricultural sector, the collection of data about new sustainable agriculture schemes remains underdeveloped.

For its part, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) defines a sustainable agriculture sector as one where “Canada’s food system is resilient and innovative, sustains our environment and supports our economy,” while ensuring that “all people in Canada are able to access a sufficient amount of safe, nutritious, and culturally diverse food” and assuring “farmers and workers in the agri-food value chain can make a good living from their work.” Ultimately, AAFC proposes to create policies to achieve these goals while “maintaining competitiveness and productivity to meet growing demands for food.” This is no easy task.

The challenges of addressing the impacts of climate change in Canadian agriculture are significant. These transitions in agriculture continue, despite the absence of a consensus about the very production modes and methods that should be encouraged to mitigate climate change, funding constraints, a continued lack of access to technology and information about sustainable farm practices, and the need for policy and regulatory frameworks that support these transitions.

The reality is that our global agricultural system continues to privilege the status quo. This is a system that has generally privileged productionist or industrial farming at the expense of a diversity of farming modes of production, especially in North America. High-output, high-input food and energy production systems have led to negative environmental consequences, including increased greenhouse gas emissions, but they have extracted significant social costs as well.

Amid rising food prices and agricultural market instability, scholars have noted how the turn to greater trade liberalization and other policies since the 1980s have increased volatility in food markets. Canada Research Chair in Global Food Security and Sustainability Jennifer Clapp contends that today’s food crisis is just one of a series of major crises in the last 50 years that have signalled that as “more people source their food from the global food industrial system, they become increasingly vulnerable to shocks that have worldwide impact.”

The National Farmers Union of Canada has pointed out that both a climate crisis and a farm crisis exist because of farm and food systems that have exploited agricultural lands and farmers by requiring high operating costs while providing extremely low margins and net incomes, the consequences of which have been the “expulsion of farm families from the land.”

As significant numbers of Canadian farmers are set to retire in the next decade, calls have been issued for tens of thousands of newcomers to fill the gap in the farm labour sector. The fact remains, however, that fewer and fewer Canadians will participate in farm work if the chronic financial instability and stress inherent in the existing agricultural system continues. Increasing land values and growing farmland inequality, industry consolidation, aging farm populations, and the need for farmers to seek off-farm work in order to earn a living wage, are all indicators that the system needs reform. To address climate change, Canada must address these additional factors if a truly sustainable agricultural sector can emerge.

As the world puts more and more pressure on its agricultural systems in the years ahead, farmers will be the ones tasked with feeding the global population under increasingly difficult climatic circumstances. Supporting sustainable farming practices –– environmental, social, and economic –– will require a significant departure from the status quo. Whether governments will be willing to make that departure remains to be seen.

Contributing Writer Jodey Nurse is a faculty lecturer at the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada at McGill University.