By Don Newman

February 15, 2024

There could be an election in Canada in 2024; the possibility is there but it is not likely to happen. Neither the minority Liberal government of Justin Trudeau nor the twenty-six New Democrat MPs who support it on confidence votes in the House of Commons have anything to gain from an early trip to the polls before the mandated election date of October 20, 2025.

That’s because the Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre is so far ahead in the polls that it would win a massive majority government that would lead to the destruction of every other political party. It matters not that the New Democrats have narrowed the gap between themselves and the Liberals. At best, they would be running for second place, and a very weak second place it would be. At worst, the Conservative attempts to win support among working-class voters would be successful and the NDP would shrivel beyond what it now has in the House.

The Liberals and the New Democrats are currently working together to prevent an election based on what is known as the Supply and Confidence Agreement. The parties reached it after the 2021 election failed to produce a majority government for the Liberals. Against the wishes of some of his MPs, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh committed the New Democrats to supporting the Liberals on crucial confidence and budget and other money votes in exchange for progress on some key NDP issues. Until now, the arrangement has worked — not perfectly — but well enough to keep the deal together.

The most significant achievement under the deal has been a comprehensive dental insurance program. Cost for all dental care is now provided for seniors over 72, and over time, the age coverage requirement will be lowered until everyone is insured. However, while dental coverage has been facilitated, that is still not the case for another health care demand of the New Democrats; national pharmacare, or comprehensive insurance for everyone in Canada for prescription drugs.

The deadline for pharmacare legislation to be introduced was the end of 2023. Agreement was reached to extend that deadline to March 1st, 2024. At this writing, we are waiting to see if that deadline is met. Even if it is, it is likely that a federal pharmacare plan outlined in proposed legislation would be largely aspirational, with timelines for implementation for various drugs, age groups of those insured and other conditions laid out on a go-forward basis.

Whether a bill like that would be enough to appease the NDP remains to be seen. Leader Singh has talked of “consequences” if the party’s demands are not met, and the most consequential of the “consequences” would be the termination of the Supply and Confidence Agreement. However, the termination would have just as serious “consequences” for the New Democrats as for the Liberals. The most likely would be an election the Conservatives would win, and they have no interest in either a pharmacare plan or an expanded dental plan, and have a myriad plans and programs that are anathema to the NDP.

What could happen is that the New Democrats, and by extension the Liberals, will try to have it both ways. The NDP will break the Supply and Confidence Agreement in a huff, claiming they are walking away from the deal because of government inaction. But walking away from a formal deal does not mean the party will start voting against the Liberals and with the Conservatives on confidence measures. All the reasons for avoiding an election will be as valid without the agreement in place.

In the minority government between 2019 and 2021, the NDP kept the Liberals in office because neither wanted an election. One was called only after the Liberals mistakenly thought they could win a majority. Until then, seperate negotiations were conducted before each confidence vote to ensure the government survived.

If the NDP abandon their deal with the Liberals as a pre-election positioning move and Trudeau does not call an election, they would likely revert to that informal arrangement. The Conservatives would have a harder time labelling the Trudeau government a Liberal-NDP coalition, but nothing else would really change. And if that is what happens, there will be no federal election in 2024.

Contributing Writer and columnist Don Newman, an Officer of the Order of Canada and lifetime member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery, is Executive Vice President of Rubicon Strategy, based in Ottawa.