Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with President Donald Trump during the Charlevoix G7 in 2018/Adam Scotti

By Colin Robertson

November 8, 2024

It was not the result that Canadians nor most of the rest of the world wanted. But it was decisive, and the electoral system worked. Both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris underlined that there will be an orderly transition on January 20 as Donald Trump, once again, prepares to take office. No matter what we thought of the result, a peaceful transition evokes a collective sigh of relief from fellow democracies.

With a second Trump presidency, we face the threat of an across-the board 10-per-cent-or-more tariff and a withdrawal of the American defence umbrella. Canada must use the time between now and the inauguration to both clear up unfinished business with the Biden administration and be ready for the Trump administration.

Working with the Trump transition team, we need to take the initiative and come up with a new ‘roadmap’, setting out management of the relationship around four baskets: defence and security; trade and investment; energy, environment, and climate; and the border.

We did this with the Biden team, and it served us well although an incrementalist approach will not work with Trump or he’ll run us over with his transactionalism. Instead, we need to be bold and, to the extent possible given our own polarization, united in an approach that will endure should we change our own government.

In congratulating Mr. Trump, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has started the conversation, discussing trade and the CUSMA, North American security and our “shared interest in secure and reliable supply chains and addressing unfair trading practices.” Starting with a focus on shared interests makes sense but we can’t be passive. We need to bring new ideas to the table.

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland will chair the resurrected cabinet committee on Canada-US relations. Given the vital importance of the US to our security and prosperity, this should be a permanent committee, just as every cabinet memorandum should include its implications for Canada-US relations. This should help to reduce irritants.

Once Mr. Trump has his cabinet in place, Mr. Trudeau should also look at who represents our key portfolios, especially trade and defence, as he did in 2017 when he replaced Stéphane Dion as foreign minister with the US-savvy Freeland.

As Trump sets his table, we have immediate and medium-term priorities.

They begin with cleaning up unfinished business and dealing with the irritants including, in the time remaining with the Biden administration, signing the modernized Columbia River Treaty.

Our Senate will soon send back to the House of Commons the misguided bill to perpetuate supply management of our dairy and poultry and thus handicap all future Canadian trade negotiations. A red flag to the US as we start what will be difficult negotiations on the renewal of the CUSMA in 2026, this Bloc Quebecois private member’s bill should never have passed the House of Commons, and it should now die on the order paper.

We are seen to have moved precipitously and out of step with our OECD partners in implementing the digital services tax. Given the influence of Big Tech in the Trump orbit, would we not be better to hold off implementation and work in tandem with our partners?

On the last day of the NATO summit in July, Mr. Trudeau finally promised to meet the NATO target of 2 per cent spending on defence by 2032. This is neither good enough for our allies nor for the United States where consecutive administrations, both Republican and Democrat, have urged us to do more.

Kelly Craft, who served as Trump’s ambassador to Canada, gave us a clear heads-up when she recently told us to “buckle up” for, as she put it, “It’s going to be …a very firm conversation that Canada needs to pay their fair share.”

We need to keep a vigilant eye on the administration’s agenda, identifying when we can be helpful and when we need to stand up for Canada.

As with our promised commitment to NORAD modernization, we are seen to be ragging the puck on defence. Coming up with plans, deliverables, dates and committed funding that meets both our NATO and NORAD commitments must be the top item for the new Canada-US cabinet committee.

Mr. Trump has said he would begin deportations on Day One. His announcement in 2017 to end residency rights for those from Central America and elsewhere led to a surge across our border. We clarified with the Biden administration the Safe Third Country agreement reached with the George W. Bush administration as part of the Smart Border accord after 9-11 that curtailed migrant visa shopping.

In anticipation of a potential surge of refugees and undocumented persons currently living in the United States, we need to go to the Trump transition team with a plan. As with our overall strategy, it needs to be developed with the provinces, especially Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia and, to the extent possible, with the involvement of opposition parties.

In the longer term, we need to discuss a joint binational border administration with the US that must include a shared approach to the people and goods entering our perimeter.

Like it or not, borders are thickening. There continues to be a perception among some American legislators that Canada is ‘soft’ on who we let in. If we are not adroit, we risk having the walls and wires, hummers and helicopters along with the visas that apply to the US southern border. So, let’s think big and start discussions on a new binational approach to border management.

For inspiration, we can draw from the International Joint Commission, which for over a century has managed our waterways flowing north and south. Then there is NORAD, which for half a century has defended our shared air and maritime domains.

A border pact will require us to share more information. The US wants us to give them a list of convicted child molesters. Why are we hesitating? When we hemmed and hawed on sharing passenger manifests of flights crossing into US airspace, the US said ‘Fine, don’t fly in our air space”. We provided the flight manifests.

Dealing with and managing the relationship with Uncle Sam has been the constant in Canadian foreign policy since before Confederation. For the first century after the break-up of British North America there was always the threat that the US would fulfill its ‘manifest destiny’ and absorb Canada as it did by taking a substantial chunk of Mexico.

We avoided this fate through pragmatic diplomacy, by creating institutions and an evolving web of agreements and arrangements that we keep evergreen. At their best they develop norms and rules and include dispute settlement.

Dealing with the US requires patience and perseverance. We must resist the temptation to pontificate and preach, avoiding what former US Secretary of State Dean Acheson described as Canada sounding like the “stern daughter of the voice of God.”

We need to keep a vigilant eye on the administration’s agenda, identifying when we can be helpful and when we need to stand up for Canada. It means taking the initiative and coming up with imaginative solutions.

Importantly, it means following through on our commitments. This is how we level the playing field with the United States. It is how we must manage Trump 2.0.

Contributing Writer Colin Robertson, a former career diplomat, is a fellow and host of the Global Exchange podcast with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute in Ottawa.