Elizabeth May

April 14, 2022

We are suffering a new form of climate denialism. It presents as climate leadership, but denialism it is. It does not deny that the climate crisis is real. It does not claim that the science is wobbly or uncertain.

It claims that the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has endorsed the goal of “net zero by 2050” to ensure a livable world for our children.

The IPCC has not done so. The IPCC warns that drastic actions are required globally in the next three years with a deep and steep decline in fossil fuel use by 2030. True, the IPCC then sees net zero by 2050 as a target, but without deeply transformative action before 2030, the 2050 goal is irrelevant. The window on holding to no more than 1.5 degrees C global average heating will have closed before 2030. That window will not re-open.

Net zero by 2050 is dangerous spin. In its own way, it is as dangerous as saying the climate crisis is a hoax. It leads us to miss critical points of no return. In a quick succession of events between March 29 and Budget Day on April 7, the tragic story of Canada’s commitment to climate failure is revealed.

March 29: The Government of Canada releases its emissions reduction plan to reach 40-45 percent reductions of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions against 2005 levels by 2030 – the stated commitment known as our “NDC” or Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement. The March 29 plan dispenses in short order with any notion our government was serious about the commitment to reach 45 percent. It sets out the target at 40 percent and then fails to reach it. It announces, as part of the plan, that Canada’s oil and gas production is to increase by 21 percent by 2030.

April 4: The Third Working Group of the IPCC releases the final chapter to the Sixth Assessment Report. It pulls no punches. To keep our Paris target of holding to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, or even the lesser goal of as far below 2 degrees as possible, global emissions must peak no later than 2025 and drop rapidly to at least half of our 2010 GHG emissions by 2030. As one of the lead authors puts it, “It’s now or never.” What is now or never? A decision to chart a course to a livable world.

In a video message, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres says:

“We are on a pathway to global warming of more than double the 1.5°C limit agreed in Paris. Some government and business leaders are saying one thing, but doing another. Simply put, they are lying. And the results will be catastrophic. This is a climate emergency.

“Climate scientists warn that we are already perilously close to tipping points that could lead to cascading and irreversible climate impacts. But, high-emitting governments and corporations are not just turning a blind eye, they are adding fuel to the flames.

“They are choking our planet, based on their vested interests and historic investments in fossil fuels, when cheaper, renewable solutions provide green jobs, energy security and greater price stability.”

Please re-read the paragraphs above – we risk “cascading and irreversible climate impacts.” This is not a threat of increasingly bad weather. This threat is to the survival of human civilization. And we have three years to act. The goal of net zero in three decades is a dangerous distraction.

April 6: As if to prove Guterres’s point, Canada doubles down on expanding fossil fuels, approving the Bay du Nord development 500 km off the east coast of Newfoundland. Bay du Nord will produce up to one billion barrels of oil – on top of our already-planned increase of 21 percent of fossil fuel production.

Wonder no more – if you did – which countries are condemned as “lying” and “adding fuel to the flames.” In the immortal words of Walt Kelley’s Pogo, “We have met the enemy and he is us.”

April 7: The 2022 Budget sets out the financing for the March 29th plan. Twenty percent of the $12 billion for climate action is for government support to the oil and gas industry for an expensive and unreliable technology called “CCUS” – Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage.  Otherwise known as “have your cake and eat it, too.”

Also in the budget is an unspecified amount to transfer ownership of the bloated carbon killing machine called the Transmountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX). With the new sticker shock of the planned construction cost of $21 billion – up from the original Kinder Morgan estimate of $5 billion – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledges no more federal dollars will be expended. But the budget promises some alchemy by which the project becomes the headache for some Indigenous ownership group to be named later. Dollars to be announced soon.

Without deeply transformative action before 2030, the 2050 goal is irrelevant. The window on holding to no more than 1.5 degrees C global average heating will have closed before 2030. That window will not re-open.

There is, of course, widespread support for nearly $900 million for decarbonizing electricity, $350 million for greener buildings and homes, and an additional $458.5 million for greener affordable housing. Significant investments have also been made in expanding the network of EV charging stations across Canada (nearly $1 billion) and a continuation of $5,000/per-vehicle rebates for consumers who buy a zero-emissions vehicle (another $1.7 billion over five years.)

But essential spending is missing to upgrade and connect a modern national electricity grid. The promised funding for adaptation to climate emergencies remained unchanged from last year’s $1.4 billion over twelve years.  After the multiple billions in infrastructure damage from wildfires and floods in 2021 and the 600 deaths in BC from the heat dome due to appalling lack of preparedness, more should have been allocated to adaptation. There was a new $383 million over five years to help prepare for additional wildfires, but through all our government’s responses, the lack of urgency to address a growing emergency is palpable. Lytton, B.C. has seen no new housing rebuilt. The only new infrastructure is a fence along Highway 1 so drivers can no longer see the burned-out town centre.

Now that the Liberals have secured NDP support for incremental half-measures and a plan described by the U.N. Secretary General as “moral and economic madness” only the Greens in Parliament are clear. Of course, Guterres did not name any nation in that condemnation, but of the countries in the G-7 only Canada has seen an increase in emissions since 2015 when we signed the Paris Agreement.

This Earth Day, maybe our prime minister will find a way to celebrate by not boosting fossil fuels again.

Contributing Writer Elizabeth May is the MP for Saanich-Gulf Islands and leader in the House of the Green Party of Canada.