David Eby/X

By Will Shelling

October 24, 2024

Whether you believe that political polls are documentary evidence based on a variety of factors and modelling or an elaborate form of astrology, the outcome of Saturday’s election in British Columbia proves, once again, that political truth can be stranger than fiction.

Politicos across the province are keen to remind people that the 2024 BC Election is eerily like 2017, in which the New Democratic Party was able to secure power through a supply and confidence agreement with the Green Party, leading to the ousting of then Premier Christy Clark.

As with 2017, no party currently holds the balance of power, and technically, not every vote has been counted, despite what pundits may say about who “won” on Saturday evening. Mail-in ballots are playing a heavy hand in this election, acting as a spectre that looms over the political landscape. Forty-nine thousand ballots have yet to be reviewed, spread across the province, which could tip the scales in favour of one party or another, potentially changing the dynamics of politics in British Columbia drastically in a short period.

Should this election simply be a 2017 reboot with a fresh cast and twist, the two parties would require the confidence of another party to pass legislation, in a situation that is a strange irony for those who vehemently campaigned against each other. However, it’s important to note that the dynamics are fundamentally different this time around, and it requires looking at the global context in which this election is cast.

Incumbency has been challenged relentlessly in prior years, with voters moving against typical electoral norms to seek change many crave. After multiple overlapping crises, such as a global pandemic that ravaged nations, economic hardship through insurgent inflation and interest rates, and flaring racial tensions across the West, it’s no wonder that voters in the UK, South Korea, South Africa and elsewhere in Africa have gravitated toward change.

It’s deeply important to note that these massive shifts did not have a specific political leaning. Instead, voters are moving on from established governments. Previously, incumbency suggested competence, name recognition, and the stability that comes from experience and continuity While the explanation for this massive change could lie in accountability issues, or trust in institutions, if you happen to be an incumbent government, you’re in trouble.

The incumbency issue makes the BC Election so much more interesting than 2017. At a time when incumbent governments are being replaced – the UK Conservatives losing by a landslide, leftists in France controlling the National Assembly, or Blaine Higgs being shown the door this week – Eby and the BC NDP are still hanging in there. Even pollsters leading up to the election itself were unable to determine if this was a “change election”, and despite the slightly higher voter turnout, Eby and the BC NDP still held their own against a Conservative wave that could have washed them out completely. The NDP are within striking distance of governing and maintaining legitimacy as the progressive option in British Columbia.

Despite the tremendous pressure otherwise, the BC NDP did not fall apart, and voters did not seek a drastically new option, as we have seen with other incumbent governments this year.

The BC Conservatives served as an easy foil for the incumbent NDP to showcase their own competency. Skillful deployment of opposition research, ranging from Conservative Leader John Rustad’s beliefs about the COVID-19 vaccine, his candidates’ statements on diverse groups, and public reactions to comments about First Nations gave the NDP the upper hand. When combined with the controversy surrounding the Conservatives lack of a costed platform until the end of the campaign, the BC NDP were able to distinguish themselves as a party with a clear plan. While it’s too soon to see the electoral impact of these tactics, the media and the public have now seen the controversies associated with new Conservative MLAs, which will lead to future issues of public engagement and trust on key issues like reconciliation.

This election, however, was not without its scars, as incumbency did wear away, albeit slightly, at the NDP.

The NDP lost 14 seats, including five sitting cabinet ministers, which has invited questions about the Party’s strategy in the election and whether it spent too much time on the offensive. While vote shares increased across the province in key ridings such as Vancouver, there is now a prominent urban/rural split that either governing party will need to negotiate in the coming years.

Importantly, the BC NDP will potentially require support from the Green Party who safely hold two seats, for legitimacy as a minority government. For Eby, to work with the Greens could be seen as a move back to the BC NDP’s policies surrounding climate action and public safety, two areas where both parties were keenly aligned until just before the writ drop when the BC NDP made a pivot to the centre on issues such as involuntary care and carbon pricing.

Through one form or another, collaboration between these two parties is likely. Eby and BC Greens Leader Sonia Furstenau, despite their policy disagreements, have respect for each other as showcased in both debates, speeches, and despite Eby’s attempt to pick up Green votes in key ridings. It could be aided by their ideological similarities, or that Eby and Furstenau have worked closely together since 2017 on key files.

Both leaders share much in common, hinting at a possible future where the NDP may move back to their base on key social and environmental issues. This trust is bolstered by Eby’s commitment to the 2024 election date which was likely done to mend fences following the snap election in 2017. While most political minds look toward a re-hashing of a confidence and supply agreement, collaboration could also look like a coalition government. This would act as a viable defence against free enterprise forces who staunchly refute progressive politics, and act as a preventative measure for any early dissolutions of their agreement.

The possibilities for how Eby and Furstenau could collaborate exist on a spectrum, however, it’s more likely that closer collaboration would lend more stability, both for the government that will be attacked by the Conservatives, and a public worn out by an intense campaign.

Despite the tremendous pressure otherwise, the BC NDP did not fall apart, and voters did not seek a drastically new option, as we have seen with other incumbent governments this year. As British Columbians wait for the results on October 28th,  it’s important to note that the BC NDP still hold legitimacy as the progressive option in British Columbia. While the outcome was surely disappointing for the Orange Team, it does not prompt the level of soul searching that many former governments across the world are delving deeply into. Instead, it provides a reprieve for Eby and the BC NDP to reflect on how to govern appropriately, as many global crises get smaller – or change- in the rearview mirror.

Will Shelling is an account director at Counsel PA and New Democrat who specializes in justice, equity, diversity and inclusion, Indigenous affairs, climate change, and Canadian culture. He is a director for White Ribbon Canada, a national non-profit dedicated to ending gender-based violence. He was raised in Las Vegas, and now lives in Vancouver, BC.