A Path to Net Zero with Nuclear in the Mix
John Gorman
The United Nations recently declared climate change a “code red” crisis, emphasizing the urgency in acting decisively to avert climate catastrophe.
While climate change must be addressed through a global approach, Canada needs to act now if it has a chance of reaching its goals of net zero by 2050, and the reality is that we have our own set of challenges and opportunities we must navigate to get there.
Canada faces unique challenges on its path to net zero.
We have one of the highest energy consumption rates per capita in the world – and are warming at twice the average global rate.
The backbone of our economy is built on natural resources, with fossil fuels currently serving 80 percent of all energy needs in Canada. Oil and gas represented around $105 billion in GDP in 2020, but they also account for a large share of Canada’s emissions. Meanwhile, according to analysis by Royal Dutch Shell, global energy demand is projected to triple by 2050.
And we still face significant challenges, including many remote and Indigenous communities being “off the grid” and forced to rely on costly and high-emitting diesel.
There is no doubt we have a monumental task ahead — one that requires a massive energy system transition leveraging the full mix of low-emitting energy sources if we are to be successful.
There is no perfect – or easy – solution. But there is a proven, viable path.
And the reality is that we have no choice but to pursue that path to have a chance of mitigating climate catastrophe.
That path must include all viable clean energy technologies – renewables working together with nuclear.
Having attended COP26, I feel very encouraged by a renewed commitment to addressing climate change. A key topic was around the integral role of clean nuclear energy working in partnership with renewables and other low-emitting energy sources.
While we may hear rumblings about not needing or wanting nuclear as part of the solution to fighting climate change – often fuelled by myths and lack of understanding – the reality is that no viable model exists without the inclusion of nuclear.
It’s hard to fathom the extent of global scientific research that has gone into helping understand the path to fight climate change – and scientists, governments, environmentalists, and climate change experts across the world have concluded over and over that it is just not possible to get to net zero without nuclear in the mix. This is a fact, not an opinion.
Nuclear energy is a clean, energy-dense, carbon-free, reliable energy available around the clock.
Nuclear power produces fewer CO2 emissions over its lifecycle than any other electricity source, according to a recent report by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE). The commission found that nuclear power has the lowest carbon footprint measured in grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), compared to any other electricity sources – including wind and solar.
It is also the most land-efficient means of producing clean energy – at least 15 times more efficient than renewable sources like wind and solar. And it serves as one of the most affordable electricity sources worldwide.
Nuclear is the only technology that has achieved deep decarbonization of entire economies in adequate timeframes. Places such as France, Sweden, and the province of Ontario have been able to effectively decarbonize their electricity grids and limit or phase out coal generation thanks to nuclear. In fact, since 1970, nuclear reactors have avoided the emission of 72 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide compared to the emissions that would have arisen had coal-fired generation been used instead. But it has the potential to do so much more.
The nuclear industry currently contributes over $6 billion in revenue annually in Canada and represents 76,000 jobs. The projected growth of the nuclear industry means an early leadership position for Canada in small modular reactors (SMRs). According to the SMR Roadmap, the estimated total global export potential of SMRs is approximately $150 billion per year for 2030 to 2040.
As part of COP26, many countries spoke to their renewed commitment to new nuclear technology, including through SMRs. A group of 12 union chiefs from across Europe reinforced to global leaders the urgency of nuclear as a key practical and proven means to get to net zero, stating, “every serious expert analysis confirms that we need nuclear to hit net zero”, a sentiment echoed by Mark Carney in his role as the United Nations Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance.
Just since Glasgow, we have seen several countries announce significant investments in nuclear technology as part of their net zero path, including $200 million in SMR investments in the UK, $1 billion in France, and $2 billion in the US. This is on top of $6 billion the US has committed to reinvest in existing reactors and the billions more that will be invested in France’s plans to build new large reactors. Meanwhile in Canada, Ontario Power Generation (OPG) recently announced it will work together with GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy to deploy a small modular reactor at the Darlington new nuclear site, with completion as early as 2028.
As someone who spent much of my career in renewables, I am a true proponent of maximizing the full potential of solar, wind, hydro and other renewables. But the fact is that 20 years ago, when I started in the renewables sector, 36 percent of the world’s electricity supply was non-emitting. Today – two decades later and following huge investments ramping up wind and solar – we’re still at 36 per cent non-emitting electricity on the world’s grids. We just cannot get to net zero through renewables alone.
There is significant focus on the role SMRs must play, leveraging innovative technology for safe, cost-effective small-scale fission reactors that can be built in factories and are easily transported on-site. Not only do they provide clean electricity, they can also play an integral role in decarbonizing Canada’s heavy industry, including the oil and gas sector that represents such a significant part of our economy. They can also serve small or remote communities, including the many Indigenous communities that currently rely on diesel. And unlike most renewable energy sources, they can provide high density, zero-emission energy around the clock.
Creating clean electricity will be a key component of Canada’s path to net zero. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that electricity generation will be about 2.5 times higher in 2050, stating that, “Spreading the use of electricity into more parts of the economy is the single largest contributor to reaching net zero emissions.” Nuclear is one of the largest producers of clean electricity around the world and in Canada, and already accounts for about 15 percent of Canada’s electricity. But we have only scratched the surface of its potential. SMRs are designed to provide reliable, carbon-free electricity with a much smaller land footprint than current reactors.
There is increasing focus on how the hydrogen economy will be a critical part of our clean energy future. When hydrogen gas reacts with oxygen it releases clean energy, and the only by-product is pure water. Like SMRs, hydrogen has the potential to help Canada transition remote communities away from high-emitting diesel and to decarbonize heavy-industry operations, transport, and community infrastructure. Today, almost all hydrogen comes from high-emitting fossil fuels. However, nuclear technologies make hydrogen gas a more practical fuel for a carbon-free energy system. Economical production of hydrogen would usher in a new era of hydrogen-powered vehicles, which would create no more emissions than walking or cycling.
Canada is uniquely positioned to take a global leadership role in creating a clean energy economy.
Our country can drive environmental, social, and economic advantage on the clean nuclear stage. For many years, Canada has been a leader in nuclear technology, exporting reactor systems developed in Canada as well as supplying a high proportion of the world’s radio isotopes used in medical diagnosis and cancer therapy. We also have the largest reserves of high-quality uranium in the world and are the second largest producer and fourth largest exporter of uranium. We have an exceptional safety record within nuclear innovation spanning 65 years and are proud to have world-class regulatory oversight.
We are at a pivotal moment, at which Canada needs to not only take decisive action to mitigate catastrophe, but to avoid falling behind other countries who are accelerating their path to net zero through clean nuclear technology.
Having targets is important, but we need tangible plans and actions that acknowledge the need for real infrastructure, policy, and regulatory oversight. Governments around the world must look beyond election cycles to the 30-year imperative of net zero. They must work together on a concrete and ambitious plan to incent fuel-switching and to signal to the clean energy sector what’s required.
Canada is no exception. The government has done a great deal to support the nuclear industry, but we cannot afford to take our foot off the pedal. We must take an “all-in” approach to tackling climate change, with industry and governments working in partnership.
Now is the time for the government to leverage Canada’s world class leadership role in clean nuclear technology innovation to help fight climate change. We cannot afford to lose momentum and fall behind. Net zero needs nuclear.
There is an opportunity to get to a better future.
John Gorman is President and CEO of the Canadian Nuclear Association.