By Daniel Béland

April 24, 2025

The term “the Trump effect” has been used over the past eight years to describe a range of political phenomena, from certain trends in tactical disruption to the dominance of propaganda in the news cycle. As we approach the 100-day mark (on April 30th) of the unlikely American president’s second term, the Trump effect has taken on a whole new meaning.

The Trump effect now refers to the boost in electoral fortunes experienced by some left-of-centre leaders and parties in democracies where right-wing politicians have seen their standing drop amid the backlash against Donald Trump’s economic warfare and foreign policy.

Since late March, I have been in Germany on a Humboldt Foundation fellowship to pursue research on federalism and public policy with a colleague at Heidelberg University. I’ve spent the past month following Canada’s election campaign from abroad, discussing what’s happening back home with European colleagues.

What has happened in Canadian politics since the re-election of Donald Trump and, especially, since he returned to the White House barely three months ago, has fostered an unusual level of international interest in Canada’s short but intense federal campaign. This is the case partly because of President Trump’s rhetoric about the 51st state, which has paradoxically put Canada as a country on the attention map internationally, but also because of a sense of solidarity on the part of Europeans who, just like many Canadians, see the Republican administration as both a security challenge and an economic threat.

While the first issue is about the trade war, which affects most countries around the world, including Canada and its European neighbors, the second issue, for Europeans, is about the Trump administration’s attitude and behaviour towards Ukraine. Many see Trump and his officials as emboldening Russia and fostering anxieties over European security, especially for former Soviet Republics like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania but also countries that once lived under Soviet control behind the Iron Curtain such as Poland and Romania.

The sense of security solidarity between Canada, most members of the European Union, —including and especially NATO allies — and Ukraine is something powerful that complements and reinforces the vexation of also being the target of Trump’s tariffs. The combination of Trump’s approach to trade and Ukraine as a testament to an unprecedentedly aggressive form of American isolationism has created an opportunity for stronger ties between Canada and Europe. Which is precisely why Mark Carney made his first trip abroad to the United Kingdom and France, two NATO members and, in the second case, a European Union (EU) country.

This is why my University of Montreal colleagues like Frédéric Mérand are arguing that Canada should “get much closer to Europe” in the face of the Trump menace. While Liberals under Carney are keen on this idea, it does not seem to be the case with most Conservatives. This is one of the many examples of foreign policy differences between Canada’s two largest federal parties that might matter significantly once we have the electoral results early next week.

Supportive of the idea of stronger ties between our country and the EU, my European colleagues are also stunned by how much Canadian politics has changed over the last few months, something reflected in the sudden rise of the Liberals in the polls and the collapse of support for the NDP we have witnessed since January.

When Justin Trudeau announced his resignation on January 6, few people in Canada or abroad could have predicted what we have seen ever since and yet the strong impact of US politics on Canada’s policy agenda, public opinion, and electoral competition is not entirely surprising. Our country remains dependent on our powerful neighbour both economically and geopolitically, something that President Trump is weaponizing to call into question our country’s very sovereignty.

Regardless of the final electoral outcomes in both countries, the fact that incumbent left-of-centre parties such as Labor in Australia and the Liberal Party of Canada have clearly benefited from the Trump effect is an important shift.

This is why his rhetoric about the 51st state has created so much anxiety among large segments of the population, a situation that has benefited the Liberals and Carney, the former central banker who waited until his late 50s to enter the electoral arena and who did so at the “right” time, as many voters, especially older ones, were concerned by President Trump but also by Pierre Poilievre and his approach to politics, which the Liberals have framed as Trump-like in their attack ads. With the second-term iteration of the Trump effect, we can talk about great timing for Carney and bad timing for Poilievre.

In the end, it is not that surprising that electoral outcomes and domestic politics of powerful countries like the United States or, in Europe, Germany, can directly impact electoral competition in other countries. As someone in the audience here in Heidelberg mentioned to me this week after my presentation, during the Euro crisis, for example, Angela Merkel and her pro-austerity fiscal approach became a key domestic electoral target of left-wing parties in Southern European countries such as Spain and, especially, Greece. As another audience member mentioned, in smaller neighboring countries like Austria and Switzerland, shifts in German politics can impact domestic electoral debates.

Yet, the best and most current example parallel to Canada mentioned during the discussion that took place after my talk is not a European country but Australia, a country that will hold federal elections on May 3. This example is especially useful to reflect on because of the cultural, historical, and institutional similarities between Australia and Canada, two members of the Commonwealth that share a common British institutional and political heritage. In Australia and Canada, during the current campaigns, right-of-centre opposition parties were initially ahead in the polls but now, at least partly because of the Trump effect, they trail behind the left-of-centre incumbent Labor Party.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese is the current prime minister, and Liberal Leader Peter Dutton (the Australian Liberal Party, as Policy readers know, actually being conservative), is the Trump-style politician threatening to purge the country’s public service and crack down on immigration and asylum-seekers (among other Trumpian signifiers). Dutton leads the conservative Coalition, which is aiming to oust Albanese.

The Coalition began climbing in the polls in 2023. “By late last year, it had passed Labor in popularity, and seemed primed to continue its rise,” per Australia ABC News. “But the numbers fell off a cliff in February this year — just after Mr. Trump’s inauguration and as the US president launched his trade war against America’s allies.” This is the case partly because Labor has scored points against right-of-center opposition politicians by stressing the perceived similarities between their rhetoric and some of their policies and President Trump’s. Sound familiar?

Cleary, the Trump effect has strong domestic electoral ramifications in countries other than Canada, and that effect is not what one might have expected when he was re-elected last November. Instead of facilitating the expansion of right-wing populist rhetoric and policies, the return of Trump to the White House might have the opposite effect, especially in the context of a trade war in which sounding like Trump has become especially toxic politically.

As Australian political scientist Ben Wellings puts it: “There was a sense after Trump’s election that he was at the head of a disruptive right-wing wave, and that this was great for the right everywhere. It hasn’t turned out that way.”

Considering these remarks about Australia, Canada might be part of a broader trend in which, in some countries at least, the Trump effect is hurting right-of-centre parties that exhibit apparent similarities with Trumpism. We will have to wait until Monday in Canada, and until May 3 in Australia, to see whether the new Trump effect has been powerful enough to help left-of-centre incumbents prevail.

Regardless of the final electoral outcomes in both countries, the fact that incumbent left-of-centre parties such as Labor in Australia and the Liberal Party of Canada have clearly benefited from the Trump effect is an important shift. Especially in helping to understand how election outcomes and their political and policy aftermath  in one powerful country can help reshape races in other nations.

Daniel Béland is professor of political science and director (on leave) of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada at McGill University.