By Don Newman

March 9, 2025      

He had most of the money and most of the endorsements and when the votes were tabulated, it turned out he had most of them as well. On March 9th, Mark Carney won the leadership of the federal Liberal Party with 85.9 per cent of the votes cast in a contest with three other candidates to succeed Justin Trudeau.

It is not just the party leadership Carney won. Within a week, he is set to be sworn in to succeed Trudeau as prime minister of Canada. He will be the 24th prime minister and the only one to have never served in Parliament.

How long will Mark Carney be prime minister of Canada? Canadians will almost certainly know the answer to that question by the end of April. That is because in addition to the Liberals who’ve been working on the March 9th leadership convention, others in the party have been working equally hard to prepare an election campaign to go to the polls across the country by the end of this month.

In fact, the campaign is expected to be ready to go before Monday, March 24th. That is the day Parliament is scheduled to resume after an 11-week break, which allowed the Liberals to run their leadership race to replace Justin Trudeau as leader and prime minister. Federal elections are by law held on Mondays, unless the Monday is a national holiday. Then they are held the next day. The last time that happened was in September 1984. The election won by Brian Mulroney on Tuesday the 4th was necessary because Monday was Labour Day.

By law, election campaigns can be up to 51 days and must be at least 37. Almost all campaigns are the minimum, although in 2015 Stephen Harper thought a longer campaign would be to his Conservative Party’s advantage. At the time, there was no maximum length for election campaigns and Harper opted for a campaign that lasted 78 days. That turned out to be a mistake. The longer the campaign went on the stronger the Liberals became and on election day Trudeau won a majority government.

Since then, in 2019 and 2021, the Liberals opted for the minimum 37-day campaigns, each of which produced a minority government. This time, the Liberals will again have the shortest campaign possible in the quickest time after the leadership convention.

Former Clerk of the Privy Council and High Commissioner to London Janice Charette is heading up the Carney transition team. The Liberals want to capitalize on any bounce they will get from the leadership selection, and they want to limit the money the Conservatives can spend on attack adds vilifying Carney. The Conservatives are rolling in money and can spend without restriction as long as there is no official election campaign. After the campaign is called, spending restrictions are in place on all parties in the aim of levelling the playing field.

Work has been underway on a timetable to call an election on Sunday, March 23rd, the day before Parliament is scheduled to resume sitting. There is a debate within the party on whether to call the election on that date or let Parliament reopen with a Speech from the Throne that would essentially serve as the Liberal platform for the upcoming election. Carney will not have a seat in the House of Commons but the speech is read in the Senate. As prime minister, he’d be seated in the Senate, feet from the Governor-General, no doubt looking as prime ministerial as possible.

The government would then have the House dissolved and an election called the next day for a week later than if it were called on March 23rd.

Some opposition parties will no doubt complain that Parliament should resume to deal with the Trump tariff threat emanating from Washington. The Liberals will counter that Carney needs a mandate from the Canadian people after being chosen party leader and prime minister without a seat in the House of Commons. They will also counter with the recognition that all three opposition parties have said they will vote against the government on a Confidence motion in the House at the first opportunity, which would plunge the country into an election anyway.

Depending on whether the Liberals decide to go for an election before the House comes back or after a brief one-day session for a throne speech, Election Day is almost certain to be April 28 or May 5. That’s when Canadians, including Carney himself, will find out how long Mark Carney will be prime minister.

Policy Columnist Don Newman is an Officer of the Order of Canada, and a lifetime member and a Past President of the Canadian Parliamentary Press Gallery.