By Don Newman

February 28, 2025

While Donald Trump’s disruption act has sown undeniable geopolitical discord, economic upheaval and political chaos, it has had had different impacts on Canadian premiers, depending on a range of factors from geography to ideology to temperament. In Doug Ford’s case, it possessed him to call a $190 million snap election that dropped him back in pretty much the same spot he was in when it started.

While Ford had exhorted Ontarians to give him the “largest mandate in Ontario’s history” to deal with Trump’s tariff threats, his Progressive Conservative Party will have one seat more or possibly one seat fewer than its pre-writ seat count of 79, pending final counts in close races at press time.

But on election night, Ford knew that while he had not increased the Conservative seat count, he had become the first premier from any party since Conservative Leslie Frost in the 1950s to win three majority governments in a row.

He can also look forward to facing a divided opposition at Queen’s Park. Thanks to the vagaries of the first-past-the-post system, the New Democrats remain the official opposition. The Liberals, who after being in power for thirteen years were destroyed by Ford in the 2018 election and failed to win official party status back in the election of 2022, now have fourteen seats, five more than they had at dissolution and two more than needed for official recognition. Their leader, Bonnie Crombie, however, failed to win her own Mississauga seat. The Liberals got almost double the popular vote of the NDP but only half as many seats.

And what of the Conservatives and Ford going forward? The Premier won his re-election by full-out campaigning against Trump and his tariffs. Twice during the campaign, he left Ontario to go to Washington with other premiers to lobby senior elected Americans to stop the tariffs, which Trump is now vowing to impose on March 4th.

For now, Ford and the Conservatives are celebrating. Maybe not the bigger majority they wanted, but one as big as the one they had going in.

Ford was lucky that it happened to be Ontario’s turn to hold the chair of the Council of the Federation, which, with the vacuum in federal leadership pending the replacement of Justin Trudeau as prime minister, enabled him to seize the spotlight as “Captain Canada.”

But as he starts his third term as premier of Ontario, things will be different. In a few days, there will be a new federal Liberal leader and then a national election. Whoever wins that election — the Liberal or Conservative leader — will move to centre stage as Trump’s counterpart. Trade negotiations are a federal responsibility. Treaties are agreed between countries not by provincial governments. Ford and the other premiers will likely be moved to the sidelines, becoming at most supporting actors in the main production. Perhaps anticipating that coming shift, Ford said in his victory speech Thursday night that the coming fight will “take a full Team Canada effort”.

Then there will be the provincial problems that Ford was able to deflect by campaigning against Trump. Overcrowded schools and a stretched thin health care system are two of the most prominent.

And hanging over all of this is an unknown question. Will the RCMP charge anyone after their investigation into allegations of wrongdoing in land development deals? Ford and the Conservatives promised in an earlier election campaign not to allow any developments in the Greenbelt, a protected area in southern Ontario near Toronto. Then it was revealed that the Ford government had allowed selected developers to proceed with Greenbelt developments.

When the story broke, the developments were cancelled. In the ensuing uproar, the Ontario Provincial Police started an investigation, then recused themselves and turned the file over to the RCMP. The Mounties are still investigating. There could be exoneration, or there could be criminal charges.

But for now, Ford and the Conservatives are celebrating. Maybe not the bigger majority they wanted, but one as big as the one they had going in. Donald Trump was the bogeyman running mate in this election, and for Doug Ford, he delivered.

Policy Columnist Don Newman is an Officer of the Order of Canada, and a lifetime member and a Past President of the Canadian Parliamentary Press Gallery.