By Don Newman

January 24, 2025

Doug Ford has found an excuse for an election. And he has Donald Trump to thank for it.

On Friday, Ford announced that he’ll call an election, expected to be held February 27, more than a year and a half before the mandated fixed election date in the fall of 2026.

“I’ll be seeing the lieutenant governor on Tuesday. We need a mandate from the people to fight against Donald Trump’s tariffs, the attack he’s coming against our families, our businesses, our communities,” Ford said on Friday.

Trump’s outrageous threat to hobble the Canadian economy — and by extension Ontario’s as the industrial heartland of the country — with crippling 25% tariffs on all imports from this country to the United States is the most obvious rationale for the early election call. Ford says he wants “the largest mandate in Ontario’s history” to both retaliate against Washington and provide the kind of support for Ontarians who could be thrown out of work by Trump’s capricious economic acts.

But Ford and his advisors have actually been working since last spring on plans for a 2025 election, according to sources at Queen’s Park. They had good reasons to want an early vote, even before Trump gave them a better one.

At the moment, the polls are good for the Progressive Conservatives. As the Official Opposition, the New Democrats have an untested leader who has never run a province-wide campaign and the Ontario Liberals who had held government for fourteen years before Ford claimed office in 2018 have a new leader, Bonnie Crombie, who, with time, has the potential to return that party to prominence and cause the Conservatives problems.

As well, by 2026 Ford and his government will have been in power for eight years. That is the point where people start to tire of governments and their leaders (see Trudeau, J.). So, a provincial election this year has held a number of attractions for Ford and his colleagues.

But it also poses potential problems. The election in 2022 produced an even bigger Progressive Conservative majority in the Legislature than Ford’s original win in 2018. Which allowed any legislation, rule, regulations, or other business to be passed without much hindrance. Also, there is a mandated federal election to be held by October of this year but could be called earlier. And recently added to that list of variables is the race for the federal Liberal leadership, with the party picking a new leader on March 9^th and that federal election now almost certain shortly after that.

Finally, Ford and the Progressive Conservatives had to come up with an actual justification for an early election. Calling one just because it would catch their opponents off-guard and they would almost certainly win wasn’t good enough. That was tried in Ontario before. In 1990, Liberal Premier David Peterson was apparently untouchable in the polls, so he decided to go for an early election. To the surprise of almost everyone — including Peterson — he lost. Ontario’s first and only NDP Government was elected, making Bob Rae premier, and Peterson’s political career was over.

Working around those various timelines was possible and the plans for a 2025 Ontario election were well underway before Trump was returned back to the White House and started making his tariff demands. Suddenly, a light came on in Toronto.

As luck would have it, Ford is the current president of the Council of the Federation, the name the provincial premiers give themselves and which rotates among the provinces on an annual basis. Ontario has a large voice no matter who is in the chair. But the fact that it is Ford gave him an imprimatur to speak for the country at a time when Parliament is prorogued and the Prime Minister is retiring. Ford has been aggressive in his denunciation of Trump and aggressive in trying to keep all of his fellow premiers in line. He may not be “Captain Canada”, but he has been coming close.

So, the election he’ll call next week has been in the planning for months. In February, while the campaign is on, he will visit Washington twice with the other premiers. To be seen combatting Trump there will be more valuable to his election hopes than campaigning in Ontario.

And, while he’s there, he may want to whisper a silent “thanks” to the American president serving as his political nemesis.

Policy Columnist Don Newman is an Officer of the Order of Canada, and a lifetime member and a Past President of the Canadian Parliamentary Press Gallery.