By Lori Turnbull

January 17, 2025

As Canada braces itself for the possibility of 25% tariffs on all Canadian products going into the United States, we are in the midst of a search for Captain Canada: someone with the authority, charisma, and communication skills to bring provinces and industries together in common defence against a dire external threat.

Canada’s economic health and national unity in the coming months and even years will depend on finding the right person to fill this role and to stand up to Donald Trump on behalf of Canada.

Given the decision of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith not to sign the joint statement of unity with the rest of the premiers following their meeting with the prime minister Wednesday in advance of Donald Trump’s inauguration, a truly “Team Canada” approach cannot be taken for granted.

In normal times, the prime minister would be Captain Canada by default. But these are not normal times. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in the final days of his political career after having been pushed out by his own caucus, with much reluctance on his own part. His performance at the First Ministers’ Meeting on January 15th was solid.

He seems to have been successful in bringing the premiers together, save for Premier Smith, in support of a common, multi-pronged strategy. But he will turn into a pumpkin in March, which leaves him with very little in the way of runway or legitimacy to be the true leader of Team Canada. And given his lack of personal popularity, which was a key factor driving members of caucus to seek a new leader, he is hardly the person to energize others as the country faces economic disruption.

The first ministers’ meeting was an unusual moment for several reasons, one of which was that, much to the premiers’ frustration, Trudeau has generally avoided meetings with all of them at once. He has preferred a divide and conquer approach whereby he meets each premier individually to figure out the terms by which each province will – or will not – meet the requirements to receive federal funding for a particular program such as childcare or health care.

The seriousness of the tariff threat and the fact that this would be a nationwide crisis necessitated that the whole federal/provincial/territorial family come together around the same table. Plus, the fact that Trudeau won’t be there for much longer means that whatever deals are made will have to survive without his leadership. The premiers and whoever becomes prime minister will have to carry things forward.

At the first ministers’ meeting, it was obvious that Captain Canada was Ontario Premier Doug Ford. He showed up wearing a baseball hat that read ‘Canada is not for sale’

Liberal leadership frontrunners Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney are already campaigning hard on being the right person to stand up to Trump, but whoever wins would have to pull off a political miracle in order to hold a Captain Canada position in the longer term. Carney’s pitch is credentials-based. He is not a professional politician, as he points out, nor does he seem to be particularly partisan in his rhetoric. He has his own brand as an economist and the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. He champions himself as the right person to run the country in a time of economic uncertainty. He may very well win the Liberal leadership contest and be prime minister long enough to run in an election, but his major challenges in the path to becoming an elected prime minister are twofold: his brand is relatively unknown among Canadians and the political party that he chose to run with is trailing miserably in the polls.

Freeland is better-known than he is but perhaps for the wrong reasons: the fact that she was Trudeau’s finance minister, deputy prime minister, and all-purpose right hand for so long means that her name recognition is inextricably tied to his. This likely won’t help in a general election.

The person who is lurking outside these rooms is Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. The Conservatives have been way ahead in every national poll and if that holds sufficiently for Poilievre to be the next prime minister, he would be in a position to take on the role of Captain Canada. But this will not be for months and the time between now and then will be crucial in developing a response to tariffs from the United States.

And, despite the Conservatives’ lead in the polls, Poilievre himself has consistently struggled to increase his personal favourability with voters. Even after Justin Trudeau’s resignation, Abacus Data reports that 41% of voters have positive impressions of Poilievre compared with 38% with negative impressions. He could remain a polarizing figure even after becoming prime minister, which could undermine his appeal and legitimacy as a voice for Canada and a unifying figure among first ministers.

At the first ministers’ meeting, it was obvious that Captain Canada was Ontario Premier Doug Ford. He showed up wearing a baseball hat that read “Canada is not for sale.” His down-to-earth, direct communication style makes him almost the only political leader in Canada who could get away with this kind of thing. He spoke about the importance of maintaining a “Canada first” approach even as premiers defend the best interests of their provinces. Through a simple gesture, his baseball hat was a symbol of patriotism at a time when people need a shot in the arm. His rhetoric was impassioned and proud: “Nothing’s more important than the country. … This is about putting the country first.”

As the premier of the country’s biggest and most populous province, he does not speak for everyone, but he has considerable clout. His authentic leadership style could go a long way in a crisis that could last a long time. And, given that a Prime Minister Poilievre is not going to want to anger Albertans who support Premier Smith in seeking a carve-out for Alberta oil, it could be that Ford is in a much better position to advocate for national unity than Poilievre would be.

A leadership vacuum at the federal level at the same time as Trump is sworn in could not be timed more poorly. But it seems that Doug Ford has filled the role, at least for now.

Policy Columnist Lori Turnbull is a professor in the Faculty of Management at Dalhousie University.