By Ben Parsons

November 14, 2024

President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to deport 15-20 million undocumented people currently living in the United States. According to the Pew Research Center, the number of unauthorized persons living in the US may be closer to 11 million, down from a peak of 12.2 million in 2005.

How the Trump administration plans to go about locating, detaining, and removing these millions of people remains murky. Federal agencies tasked with immigration enforcement and removal operations have fewer than 15,000 staff available for field operations. Reuters reports that the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency may use military aircraft to help deport people. Collaborating state and local law enforcement agencies will inevitably contribute resources in the rounding up, detention and movement of these individuals.

Millions of people, some of whom have been living in the United States for decades, now face a difficult choice. Some will choose to remain in place, living in the shadows, avoiding contact with law enforcement and working in the underground economy. Others will choose to relocate to a “sanctuary” city or state that has chosen to not cooperate with ICE. Others will choose to flee the United States, seeking refuge in places like Canada, opting to enter the country through uncontrolled border crossings.

Given the enormous risk, Canada needs to act now. To avoid a chaotic response, we must behave as if the worst-case scenario is a foregone conclusion.

For states that choose to not cooperate with ICE, the costs could be enormous. States such as California, New York and Vermont may face a sudden crush of millions of people fleeing deportation elsewhere in the country. The ensuing pressures on already-stretched housing supplies and public services could trigger social and political chaos. In this sense, the coerced movement of internally displaced people can be used as a weapon against uncooperative governments. The governors of Florida and Texas have already demonstrated a willingness to use displaced people as a political cudgel, loading up buses full of migrants and dropping them off in Democrat-controlled jurisdictions.

Canada shares an undefended 8,900-km border with the United States. While the federal government has moved quickly to reduce legal avenues available to irregular migrants from the U.S., it has not yet signalled its plans to shore up surveillance and enforcement outside of established border crossings. U.S. Customs and Border Protection has a budget of 19.6 billion USD (27.4 billion CAD), much of which is used to (unsuccessfully) control its much shorter southern border (3,145 km) with Mexico. By contrast, Canada Border Services has a budget of around 2.6 billion dollars CAD (1.86 billion USD). Even with unlimited resources, it is unclear if comprehensive monitoring and enforcement of the United States border is logistically or technically feasible.

With public sentiment against immigration rising and a severely constrained housing supply in Canada, we are ill-prepared to absorb large numbers of people arriving from the south. Municipalities are already incapable of managing the homelessness crisis, and provincial service agencies are straining to cope with existing demand. An additional one million arrivals would quickly devolve into an unmanageable crisis.

Given the enormous risk, Canada needs to act now. To avoid a chaotic response, we must behave as if the worst-case scenario is a foregone conclusion.

While we can hope that this scenario does not unfold in the coming weeks and months, it is clear that Canada no longer has the luxury of living in a quiet neighborhood.

Ben Parsons is Vice President, Federal Advocacy, Counsel Public Affairs.