PA

By Ben Collins

October 29, 2024

Earlier this month, as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer marked that mythical metric on any administration’s political odometer – the first 100 days in office – it would be wrong to say that he celebrated this achievement. By most objective assessments, Starmer’s Labour government has gone through a pummelling since winning the July 4th election.

Among other highlights, there has already been a reshuffle of his top team at Downing Street, with his chief of staff, Sue Gray, stepping down after three months to take a lesser job in government.

Like his predecessor as Labour prime minister, Tony Blair, Starmer came to power with a majority in excess of 100 MPs, but that is where the similarities end. Whereas Blair’s Labour government, elected in 1997, maintained high approval ratings for 1,000 days until the fuel protests of 2000, Starmer’s government has already dropped to negative ratings within three months of its election victory. In 1997, Labour secured more than 43% of the overall vote, whereas in 2024 Labour managed to win the election with just less than 34%. Starmer is considered to be a less charismatic leader than Blair, and the foundations for his government’s support are fragile by comparison. This scenario has been referred to as sandcastle politics, whereby a large coalition can be built from diverse sources, but is at risk of washing away quickly.

Starmer started his premiership talking about his desire to reset relationships with the European Union, after the UK’s post-Brexit friction was exacerbated by the aggressive attitude of successive Conservative Prime Ministers. However, his warm words have not been accompanied by solid action to rebuild links between Britain and continental Europe. Labour in its first term of government from 1997 to 2001 was worried about rapidly losing support to a resurgent Tory party (which didn’t actually show evidence of being electable until 2008, after the global financial crisis). It appears that this Labour government is deeply concerned that taking any steps to mitigate the worst impacts of Brexit could lead to a resurgence of support for the Conservative party.

On 30 October, Labour will bring forward their first budget and advance briefings have emphasized that it will be a painful process, with unspecified tax rises expected and departmental budget cuts confirmed. Several cabinet ministers have already bypassed the Chancellor to directly appeal to Starmer for the proposed spending cuts to be reversed. Just as the Labour government under Blair pushed through cuts to disability payments, so Starmer is cutting winter fuel allowance payments to elderly people. Several of his MPs have already had the whip withdrawn (were suspended from the party) for voting against these cuts. However, Starmer remains determined to proceed with these reductions given the overall pressure on the UK budget and his belief that there is an urgent need to pay down the government’s level of debt, which has ballooned. This is due to the financial repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic and the continuing slow growth of the economy due to Brexit.

Starmer initially called for a second vote on the UK’s decision to leave the EU. But now that he is prime minister, both he and senior cabinet colleagues have indicated on multiple occasions that they do not envisage the UK rejoining the European single market or allowing free movement of people with the EU. He has also categorically stated that he does not think that the UK will rejoin the EU in the future.

Like his predecessor as Labour prime minister, Tony Blair, Starmer came to power with a majority in excess of 100 MPs, but that is where the similarities end.

One area where Starmer does appear to have made a positive impact is his stated aim of resetting relations with Ireland. He spent several years working in Belfast when he was the Human Rights Advisor to the Northern Ireland Policing Board. As a result, he developed a deep love of Ireland, as well as a better-than-average understanding of Irish politics. He regularly plays football (soccer) wearing a Donegal GAA training top and was gifted a fresh one when he met with the new Taoiseach, Simon Harris, at Chequers in July.

On the international stage, Starmer has met with President Joe Biden, delivered a well-reviewed speech at the UN General Assembly, taken part in a high-level summit on continued support for Ukraine and emphasized Britain’s continued support for Israel. A section of his party membership are deeply concerned about what is happening in the Middle East, but Starmer has refused to modify his position. Foreign Secretary David Lammy has taken a tough line against Russia but recently visited China to strengthen the bilateral relationship across a range of areas including energy, climate, science, tech and trade.

In his time, Blair stated his aim was to make Britain a bridge between the US and the EU. What can Starmer do? If Trump wins the presidential election on November 5 we are likely to see significant tariffs and as Britain is now outside the EU, it will be expected to pick a side by a Trump administration. Historically, there have been close links between the UK Labour party and the US Democrats. During this election around one hundred labour activists have travelled to the US to campaign for Vice President Kamala Harris. The Trump campaign has made a formal complaint that this is foreign interference. On a recent trip to the US, Starmer had a two-hour dinner with Donald Trump in New York but failed to meet with Harris.

On a personal level, Starmer has been criticized for accepting various items of clothing, eyewear, high-end tickets to a Taylor Swift concert and to watch his beloved Arsenal FC, and the use of a luxury Covent Garden penthouse owned by a Labour donor during the election campaign, which he attributed to security considerations for his teenage children. In early October, he reimbursed £6,000 ($11,000 CAD) worth of gifts.

Looking to the future, Starmer has said that he wants to undertake a 10-year reform project for the UK’s National Health Service which is struggling badly due to lack of resources and rapidly increasing demands. He has also said that he wants to focus on growing the economy, addressing climate change and establishing Great British Energy, which will be a publicly owned clean-energy company.  His government intends to bring rail franchises under state control when their current contracts end. The question is whether Keir Starmer will be able to lead the government long enough to see these ambitious plans to completion.

Ben Collins is a Belfast-based communications consultant and author of the book Irish Unity: Time to Prepare.