By Don Newman

September 21, 2024

The recent results in the Montreal byelection in La Salle-Emard-Verdun where the Liberals lost by fewer than 300 votes to the Bloc Québécois undeniably mean that the government of Justin Trudeau is finished.

It was probably finished in June. That’s when the Liberals narrowly lost another byelection. This one in the Toronto riding of St. Paul’s. The ridings are among the safest seats for the Liberal Party in Canada, in the country’s two biggest cities, which are at the core of support for what is sometimes known as the “Natural Governing Party.”

Both byelections were close, but that’s not the point. Liberals often win over 50% of the votes cast in both ridings. Even if they had narrowly won both, there would be questions about the viability of the Trudeau-led Liberals going forward. But they didn’t win either, and those results along with the Conservatives continuing 20-point lead in the opinion polls means that for a Liberal Government led by Trudeau it is over.

Political leaders never want to go, especially if they have been successful. Previous success at the polls convinces them they know how to win and after a considerable time in office they have learned the ropes and usually are the most qualified to continue doing the job. But they should have also learned that since politics became a television sport, leaders have become like cartons of milk. They have a “best before” date that takes effect when they are no longer fresh, and beyond which they begin to sour — or, more accurately, voters do — and will be thrown out.

That’s the way it was with Pierre Trudeau and with Brian Mulroney both of whom started with tremendous popularity and were later chased from office. Both waited too long, and their parties paid the price in the next election. Now, Justin Trudeau is in danger of repeating his father’s mistake. As the adage goes; those who fail to learn from history are destined to repeat it.

Led by Trudeau himself, the Liberal Party seems enveloped in denial. Working harder, explaining better to Canadians and things will turn around. That’s the mantra but it is wearing thin.

Last spring, the Prime Minister’s Office was hoping this past summer would start to see things turn around, that the gap in the polls would start to close and that the momentum would swing.

As we now know, that is not what has happened so far and isn’t going to happen going forward. The St. Paul’s defeat derailed the plan at the beginning of the summer and at the end of the summer the defeat in Verdun has taken the hope of another Trudeau government completely off the tracks.

Faced with not just certain defeat if not complete annihilation, what can the Liberal Party do? Nothing unless the party can convince Trudeau to leave. If he digs in and stays, he will be faced with more cabinet ministers deciding not to run again, more party operatives deciding to sit out the election, more embarrassment as the political walls close in. That is why there is a good chance that in the near future he will decide to go.

His departure will give the Liberals at least a fighting chance, that is if they don’t blow it. The Party will have to organize a leadership race and a process to select the leader that if it is not a traditional convention at least has some dynamism and excitement. And it has to pick the leader that can take an election fight to Poilievre.

The race will attract all of the usual suspects; Francois-Phillipe Champagne, Mélanie Joly, Anita Anand, possibly Chrystia Freeland and no doubt some other hopefuls who know they have no chance of winning but hope to raise their stature in the party.

Then there is the big question to be answered; Will Mark Carney run? There will be a lot of pressure on him to finally get off the fence and take the plunge. He would be a frontrunner if he does. But he shouldn’t. He might win the party leadership but leading a party in his first election attempt would probably lead to the same result that Michael Ignatieff or Kim Campbell delivered.

A dark horse who would have trouble winning the party but would be a formidable opponent for the Conservatives is Housing Minister Sean Fraser. He is young, good looking, articulate in both English and French and comes from a Liberal base the party has to hold onto, the Maritimes. However, the fact that he’s housing minister at a time when a shortage of housing has some people calling the situation a “crisis” would not be a help.

But there is a senior cabinet minister who has been mentioned, although not very often, who could give the Conservatives fits if he became Prime Minister, then called an election, and ran a good campaign. He lost his first campaign for a seat in the House of Commons but has won every election since, and after the Liberal defeat in the 2008 election briefly flirted as a candidate for the party leadership. In the Trudeau Government he has been a trouble-shooter and a go-to player. His name is Dominic LeBlanc.

LeBlanc is a Maritimer from New Brunswick. He is the son of former Governor-General Roméo LeBlanc, who was also a cabinet minister in Pierre Trudeau’s government. He is a fluently bilingual Acadian, which while not Québecois, plays better in Quebec than yet another Western Canadian as Conservative leader.

He went to Harvard and the University of Toronto, which means he should have the brains to do the job. But he maintains a common touch that is at home on the wharfs of the fishing villages in his riding. Leblanc has had health problems. In the face of a cancer scare a few years ago, a stem-cell transplant almost miraculously saved his life.

If LeBlanc were to succeed Trudeau as Liberal leader chances are the party would still lose the next election, but not as badly as the polls now predict. Leblanc could hold the Conservatives to a minority. A minority after a 20-point lead in the polls would soon have Conservatives restless and angling for Poilievre’s head. Certainly, those prospects would make the next election more interesting than it would now appear to be.

Contributing Writer and columnist Don Newman, an Officer of the Order of Canada and lifetime member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery, is Executive Vice President of Rubicon Strategy, based in Ottawa.