By Lori Turnbull

September 5, 2024

The supply and confidence agreement that tethered the Liberal government to the New Democrats has now been terminated. It was never necessary to begin with. From a purely political perspective, it has likely done more harm than good – especially to the NDP.  By signing an agreement to prop up the Liberals for the past two and a half years, Singh abdicated his role as an opposition leader and has plunged his party into an existential crisis.

Defenders of the supply and confidence agreement will point to the measures that came to fruition as a result of it. And that’s a fair point. Specifically, the Liberals and the NDP worked together to pass a law banning the use of replacement workers in federally regulated workplaces during strikes as well as the Sustainable Jobs Act for the creation of jobs in a net-zero economy. Further, they worked together to push through the housing accelerator fund, a doubling of the GST rebate, and a rental supplement. Dental care is underway, though not fully implemented and pharmacare is still a question mark. This bill passed through the House and is now in the Senate. The hurdle of negotiations with the provinces and territories remains.

Though the pharmacare piece is far from resolved, this is a long and impressive list of accomplishments that speaks directly to the goals of the NDP. They should be able to declare victory at this point, but it seems that none of the credit for any of these achievements is coming their way. Frankly, given the Liberals’ low polling numbers, it doesn’t look like many people are lining up to thank them either.

In the last two elections, there has been significant policy overlap in the Liberal and NDP campaign platforms. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau decided to take the gamble of an early election in the fall of 2021, not even two years after the previous one, in the hopes of winning a majority and no longer needing support from any other party. Alas, voters did not go for it. The Liberals won 160 seats in 2021 compared to 157 in 2019 and the NDP increased their presence in the House by only a single seat. The supply and confidence agreement was signed in March of 2022 and seemed to indicate an acknowledgement on both parties’ parts that neither wanted an election any time soon. They had much common ground to work with, which made the policy agreement more straightforward that it otherwise would have been.

It stands to reason that the measures the parties achieved together in the life of this agreement could also have happened without it.

The bottom line: the agreement was not signed in order to stabilize the government and the relationship between the two parties. That stability was already there because of all that they had in common both in terms of policy goals and the desire to make Parliament work to avoid another election. But by lining up behind the Liberals and giving his support in advance rather than on an issue-specific or case-by-case basis, Singh lost his leverage as an opposition leader in a position to extract concessions from a vulnerable minority government.

It stands to reason that the measures the parties achieved together in the life of this agreement could also have happened without it. Singh could have made his support for the Liberals on each vote contingent on Liberal action on NDP priorities. He could have played hardball and perhaps gotten even more out of the Liberals than he did with this deal. Sure, he would have been in a tough spot had the Liberals refused his terms and we wound up in an early election, but that is unlikely given that voters would have blamed the Liberals more than anyone for the churn of yet another campaign. The supply and confidence agreement had the effect of silencing the NDP. Even when Singh spoke, people didn’t listen as closely because his support for the Liberals was already in ink. His press conferences around matters of confidence became dull political theatre because we already knew how he and his party would vote.

This deal was always going to end at some point. But even though the breakup was their idea, the circumstances don’t seem particularly helpful to the NDP. It would have been better for them to break ties with the Liberals on a key issue or vote that helped them to define themselves. For example, had the Liberals tried to force the railway unions back to work through legislation, that would have been a moment for the NDP to end the agreement on a clear matter of principle. But events did not work out that way. Singh ended up leaving the deal citing concerns that the Liberals are too consumed by corporate greed and have “let people down.” If that’s what he really thinks, why has he supported them for two and a half years?

Time will tell whether voters will reward the NDP for its part in the Liberal government’s achievements. Jagmeet Singh and the NDP have from now until the next election to make that case.

Lori Turnbull is a professor in the Faculty of Management at Dalhousie University.