Don Newman

September 1st, 2023

The next fourteen months in American politics could be painful. If we are
lucky, they will culminate on November 5th 2024 with an election to select the President of the United States with a result that is clear, unequivocal and decisive. More likely, we will again have an election the results of which will be contested by someone.

Between now and November, we will suffer through not just the usual political Sturm und Drang that surrounds presidential politics in the United States. We will likely be subjected to a campaign in which the Republican Party is enthralled by a candidate still claiming he was denied the presidency in 2020, in an election purportedly stolen by nefarious Democrats using rigged voting machines, crooked election officials and stuffed ballot boxes.

Donald Trump, who lost his re-election bid in the 2020 election in both the Electoral College and in the popular vote, has gone to extraordinary lengths to prove the election was stolen. So unhinged did his claims become that Trump undertook a number of illegal actions to try and prove his point, actions that have now led to over 90 criminal charges in four different criminal cases.

His legal troubles have not stopped Trump from trying to be the Republican candidate again next year. And so far, those legal troubles have enhanced his chances. He is the overwhelming leader in public opinion polls ranking hopefuls for the Republican presidential nomination. Each time he is charged he raises more money to fuel both his campaign and pay his legal bills.

Despite Trump’s lawyers’ efforts to delay the trials that will flow from these indictments it is almost certain that most of the trials will take place in the first half of 2024, when Republicans will be selecting their nominee in primary elections, caucuses and state conventions. What happens in the trials will have an impact on the selection process but even if Trump is convicted in some or all of the cases, appeals and other legal manoeuvres seem likely to keep many if not all of the issues unresolved by election day in November 2024.

His legal troubles have not stopped Trump from trying to be the Republican candidate again next year. And so far, those legal troubles have enhanced his chances.

While Trump, who boycotted GOP primary debates in 2016 and the second general election debate against Joe Biden in 2020, skipped the first Republican debate of the election cycle on August 23rd in Milwaukee, eight candidates who met the donor and support qualifications did not. When it was over, relative positions among them had changed little. While former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley both criticized Trump, the majority of the candidates said they would still back Trump if he were criminally convicted, reinforcing the power of the Trumpian base as a voting bloc.

The surprise of the debate was Vivek Ramaswamy, the 38-year-old tech multi-millionaire launching his political career by starting at the top. He
advanced a number of ideas as objectionable and outrageous as the
former president has been doing for years, and said if Trump is convicted in any of his upcoming trials, as president he would pardon him.

Ramaswamy’s performance set off confrontations with former Vice President Mike Pence, Haley and Christie, who portrayed Ramaswamy as ignorant and inexperienced, while he just beamed, revelling in the attention. His support went up slightly after the debate. Support for the absent Trump remained steady.

Whether it is Trump or some other candidate who emerges, they will take on Joe Biden, the incumbent president running for re-election. Although Democrats widely hail Biden for defeating Trump in 2020, he will be 82 years old if he wins again and 86 if he completes a second term. A majority of Americans, including Democrats, think at that age Biden should not be running again — but he seems determined.

All of this points to a very painful next fourteen months. What comes after that may be more so.

Contributing Writer and columnist Don Newman, an Officer of the Order of Canada and lifetime member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery, is Executive Vice President of Rubicon Strategy, based in Ottawa.