Don Newman

November 18, 2021

They go by four different names and are in power in six of the 10 provinces – as well as being the Official Opposition in Ottawa. But some conservative political parties in Canada are in more disarray than sustainable electability normally requires. How these different situations work out could have a long-term influence not only on conservatives, but on politics and policy generally.

Federally and in Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the conservative parties are in trouble, not just with voters in general, but with their own supporters in particular.

The situation facing the federal Conservative Party and leader Erin O’Toole has the highest profile and potentially the greatest impact. Two months after finishing second to Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, leader Erin O’Toole is under pressure from the within the Conservative Parliamentary caucus and in the party generally to step down.

Of course, O’Toole is largely responsible for his predicament.

After winning the Conservative Party leadership in 2020 by telling party members he was a right-wing “true blue” Conservative, he then jettisoned most of the hard-right policies that energize the party’s base and ran in the September election on a much more centrist platform.

But when that didn’t work, those who are really “true blue” came looking for him. They want a mandatory review of O’Toole’s leadership moved up from the spring of 2023. One Conservative Senator, Denise Batters, has started a petition to have a leadership vote within six months, per the provisions of Tory MP Michael Chong’s Reform Act, which the Tory caucus alone among Parliamentary caucuses passed in early October and O’Toole himself endorsed. Since Senator Batters is relatively obscure, it is widely assumed she is acting on behalf of an O’Toole usurper waiting in the wings, perhaps former leader Andrew Scheer, or Peter MacKay, whom O’Toole defeated for the leadership to succeed Scheer.

O’Toole has kicked Batters out of the caucus and shunned another group of MPs who have organised a “civil liberties caucus” dedicated to the rights of those unvaccinated against COVID-19. But Batters says she will continue her fight, accusing O’Toole of flip flopping and making the Conservatives indistinguishable from the Liberals.

The first session of the new Parliament opens on Monday. For now, O’Toole is in charge of the Conservatives but he faces the prospect of an ongoing fight from within, a process one source compared to being nibbled to death by ducks.

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney could find himself in an even more dire situation. Plagued by declining poll numbers because of his government’s mishandling of the pandemic, and squeezed between members of his United Conservative Party drawn from the right-wing Wild Rose Party and the moderate members he brought from the Progressive Conservative Party to a merger of the two groups, Kenny now faces an open revolt from at least a quarter of his party.

O’Toole is in charge of the Conservatives but he faces the prospect of an ongoing fight from within, a process one source compared to being nibbled to death by ducks.

Recently in Alberta, twenty-two of the eighty-seven riding associations of the party passed identical resolutions calling for a referendum vote on Kenney’s leadership by March 1^st of next year. To add to his woes, the man he defeated for the United Conservative leadership, former Wild Rose leader Brian Jean, is seeking the UCP nomination in a soon-to-be-called by-election. If Kenney finds a way to block him as a candidate. Jean will probably run as an independent and could win the riding anyway. Kenney’s problems seem destined to keep on mounting.

Earlier this fall, Heather Stefanson won a two-person race for the leadership of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party. She defeated the only other candidate, former Harper-era cabinet minister Shelly Glover, by 363 votes, and was sworn in as premier. Glover is claiming election fraud and has gone to court to challenge the official party results. Stefanson has decided not to challenge the court case, and it will probably be heard before Christmas. In the meantime, Stefanson continues as premier. If Glover were to win the case it would likely mean the leadership race would have to be run again, with a sitting premier as a candidate.

And then there is Saskatchewan. Premier Scott Moe does not appear in danger of losing his job to an internal revolt, but he certainly has problems. After appearing to manage the pandemic to virtual disappearance during the summer, Moe lifted almost all restrictions. The result was a resurgence of cases that swamped the province’s hospitals and led to some people being airlifted to Ontario for treatment.

The criticism was getting so bad that in an effort to change the channel the premier started talking about how neglected Saskatchewan is by the federal government. He said he was going to begin pushing for Saskatchewan to be treated as a “nation” within Confederation like Quebec is, although unlike Quebec it has no distinct characteristics in terms of language, culture or legal system to reinforce the idea. That and the costs of maintaining its own tax collection and provincial police force and the other accoutrements of a province as a “nation” seem prohibitive for a province of just over a million people. The joke in Regina is that Moe had got the “nation” idea from his brothers, Larry and Curly.

The situation in Saskatchewan may have a humorous side. But in Ottawa, Alberta and Manitoba, Conservatives are finding their plight a lot harder to laugh about.

Contributing Writer and columnist Don Newman, an Officer of the Order of Canada and Lifetime Member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery, is Executive Vice President of Rubicon Strategy based in Ottawa.