CBC.ca

Lori Turnbull

September 8, 2021

For the first half of the federal campaign, it looked like the decision to call an early election had turned into an unforced error on the part of the Liberals. They had been expecting that in a short campaign over the summer, enough voters in key swing ridings would reward Justin Trudeau’s government for all that it had done throughout the COVID-19 pandemic

This was his strategy for turning his minority government into a majority. The Liberals were so confident that they neglected to put up a policy-related ballot question to frame the campaign. The election was not to be a policy debate or a contrast of visions but, instead, was designed as a referendum on Trudeau’s leadership during the pandemic. If this was the ballot question, how could they lose?

Enter Erin O’Toole. Once Parliament was dissolved and the much-anticipated campaign began in earnest, the Liberals were caught off- guard by the effectiveness of the Conservative campaign. The Conservatives and the New Democrats both released their platforms early on (albeit without costing), which forced a policy debate that Trudeau and the Liberals were not expecting.

O’Toole took some liberties by distancing himself from the various factions that make up the Conservative base: he offered a platform that includes more centrist elements on worker protection and carbon pricing, which opens the possibility of enlarging the Conservative voter pool.

At the same time, there were some strategically placed items to appease the base. Opinion polls indicated that this approach was working; the Conservatives were maintaining a solid lead nationally and were growing in Ontario, which would be key to them forming a government. The Liberals were now facing the possibility of vote-splitting on both the left and the right, with their popularity slipping by the day.

Trudeau’s own brand has been tarnished by time, personal controversies and the approval attrition of familiarity since he ran as the youthful, anti-Harper option in 2015. Meanwhile, Jagmeet Singh and the NDP have been running an energetic campaign around taxing the rich, protecting workers, addressing climate change, and enhancing social programs.

Polls in the first half of the campaign showed that the NDP were picking up support and, depending on which poll you were looking at, could be as high as 23 percent nationally in popular support. They stand a chance of picking up seats in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec. The Conservative and NDP campaigns were going so well, in fact, that the media began asking whether O’Toole and Singh could work together in a Conservative-led minority Parliament. Trudeau’s path to a majority – or even a continuation of his minority – was now in jeopardy.

This has been a campaign of wedge issues, attack ads, conspiracy theories, vandalized campaign signs and, unfortunately, violent protests – all of which contribute to the deterioration of the standard of civility that we’ve come to expect in Canadian elections.

On Labour Day weekend, however, there was a palpable shift in the direction of the campaign. Mixed messages undermined the efforts of O’Toole and the Conservatives, while clear communication, combined with a renewed intensity and determination on the part of the leader, drew momentum toward the Liberals. Perhaps Trudeau always planned to turn up the heat around Labour Day, when more voters would start paying closer attention, and perhaps he’s responding to what is now a very competitive race.

He found his groove in the TVA debate held in the first week of September, and he kept his confidence and resolve in the following days as angry protesters greeted him on the campaign trail. Trudeau is running against O’Toole, Singh, and Blanchet, but he’s also running against anti-vaxxers.

This has been a campaign of wedge issues, attack ads, conspiracy theories, vandalized campaign signs and, unfortunately, violent protests – all of which contribute to the deterioration of the standard of civility that we’ve come to expect in Canadian elections. The protests have also created a pivot point in the campaign in that they have given Trudeau and the Liberals an opportunity to enthusiastically and proudly defend their record on the management of COVID-19.

Trudeau is more than happy to take a hard stand against anyone who suggests that lockdowns, restrictions, and vaccines are not absolutely necessary. He’s found strength and confidence on the campaign trail in response to this issue; one can even imagine him having a “just watch me” moment that would be a game changer.

For O’Toole’s part, he’s now a real contender for the Prime Minister’s Office, and so faces closer scrutiny about his plans regarding what sort of privatization he wants to see in health care, whether he would take measures that would affect access to abortion, why he is not making vaccines mandatory for his candidates, and whether he actually committed to ending a ban on assault-style weapons. His lack of clarity on each of these issues has only invited further questions from the media and his opponents.

A common Liberal strategy is to undermine trust in Conservative leaders by suggesting that they have hidden agendas, to be revealed only once a Conservative government is sworn in. This approach was not terribly effective until Labour Day weekend, when O’Toole got caught up in accusations that his intentions were not clear, that he was saying different things to different people, that he was flip-flopping for political expediency, and that he was attempting to evade clarity and accountability on his positions so that he could appeal broadly without alienating the base. On Saturday, September 4, with two and a half weeks to go, it looked like the Conservatives might blow it over their position on assault-style weapons. O’Toole reversed course on this on Sunday morning, which might have saved his campaign, but the backtrack only lends credibility to Trudeau’s suggestion that O’Toole would say anything to get elected and thus cannot be trusted. Advantage: Trudeau.

The debates and the last days of the campaign will be critical for all parties. While a majority Liberal government seems elusive still, Trudeau’s campaign has harnessed energy by maintaining a clear, uncompromising position in favour of mandatory vaccines and by sowing doubt about the true intentions of Erin O’Toole.

It’s a more volatile and unpredictable campaign than anyone had imagined. The national polls help us to understand momentum, but do not offer much insight into how the close ridings will play out. We could be looking at a long election night.

Contributing Writer Lori Turnbull is an Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the School of Public Administration at Dalhousie University. She is a co-winner of the prestigious Donner Prize for political writing.