Events, Dear Boy: The Potential Surprises of a Somnolent Summer Campaign

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, left, Conservative Party of Canada Leader Erin O’Toole, centre left, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, centre, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet and Green Party Leader Annamie Paul/CBC.ca

Robin V. Sears

August 15, 2021

Unnecessary, uncalled-for federal election campaigns can be surprisingly risky for incumbents. One called in the middle of a public health crisis has never been tried before, at least at the federal level. It is not clear it will go down as strategic genius.

Even in non-pandemic times, a frenzy of burger flipping and boisterous mainstreeting often does little to persuade Canadians to pay attention to the visiting political circuses before Labour Day. And this time, even those will be a little awkward —- no baby-kissing, no hundreds of rope-line handshakes and no large crowds of screaming partisans.

Then there is the challenge of “Why?” For at least the first half of the campaign, the Liberals will have to answer: “Why are you screwing up the end of my first real summer in two years?” The only message the Grits’ brain trust seems to have come up with is: “If you liked our pandemic crisis management so far, how about four more years without the irritating friction of a whining, nettlesome opposition?” Voters might be forgiven for finding Erin O’Toole’s riposte —- “Hey, at least I’m not him!” —- more compelling. Even Jagmeet Singh’s time-tested, “Shut up and act!”, will probably wake up more voters.

Then there is the risk of, to cite the oft-quoted quip by British Prime Minister Harold MacMillan as to what troubled him most, “Events, dear boy, events!”: A super spreader campaign event, a candidate or six downed by COVID, a claimed vaccination that did not happen, or even an officer of public health muttering that perhaps the campaign buses could take themselves to someone else’s province this week.

The Liberals’ pre-campaign strategy was — in time-honoured party tradition — to ladle out billions of cash in a frantic round of grinning alongside beaming local pols, province by province. Their campaign tactics so far appear to be a re-run of their 2019 triumph: sneers mixed with character attack. Even Conservatives, always better at campaigning on the dark side, would have a hard time making that appealing in this COVID campaign.

The Tories seem to be trying to play nice and naughty at the same time, with a smiling O’Toole promising everyone a happier, prosperous future, while their foreign campaign attack dogs produce mystifyingly stupid cartoon attacks on the prime minister. However, O’Toole has a powerful campaign advantage this time: expectations. If he crosses the finish line breathing, it will be seen as a brilliant comeback. Jagmeet Singh enjoyed that advantage last time; this time, he needs to be careful about expectations management.

Canadian elections are always much more complex that the polling scores would lead you to believe. First, when you have three, or in some places four, competitive players at the riding level, handicapping the outcome — having weighted turnout, incumbency, and local and regional grumbles — is very hard. In this campaign, it is probably safe to say that the Liberals will have a far higher turnout challenge than either the blue or the orange teams. And they may be twice cursed: if they are flagging, local campaign teams will have only two weeks of campaign time to energize their base following Labour Day. If they are in a good lead, many Liberals may decide it’s safe to stay home.

For Erin O’Toole, as was the case for his two predecessors, it is the candidate bozo moments that will inflict sleeplessness on his strategists: vax dissers, outed Islamophobes, and even old chestnuts like guns and abortion, could blow up several campaign days. If O’Toole can be sufficiently disciplined in the debates to present the intelligent, empathetic and attractive person he is in private, especially in the face of Trudeau’s usual ad hominem anger, he will emerge as a far more serious contender. His Kiwi campaign advisers will want him to hit back twice as hard as he is pounded, however, and that will not end well.

Jagmeet Singh’s strong minority government performance, his impressive list of significant pandemic support wins for ordinary Canadians, and his much steadier campaign feet this time than last, should promise a strong outing. His greatest risk is being tempted off-message or worse, allowing expectations to get too far in front of reality, if he is doing well. One of the lessons of 2011 was that Liberals were able to scare many of their voters in Ontario and B.C. back into line, as a result of Jack Layton’s soaring close in Quebec.

For the Liberals to be confident of a big win, they will need to address the prime minister’s personal negatives. Ideally, that would take the form of a different campaign style by Justin Trudeau: less theatre and more respectful persuasion, less bragging and more humility —- especially about their pandemic performance. Unlikely, to put it most politely.

An alternative might be party surrogates laying that humility groundwork for him. “Yes, we made mistakes; yes, should have listened more; and yes, we must focus on specific pledges and policy performance, not just haranguing Tory trogs —- and you watch, we will.” This would need to be followed by proofs in the PM’s podium performance, a much tougher challenge.

Insiders’ favourite cliché — that what happens between writ day and E-day, matters most — is sometimes true. It is more likely to be true in a campaign that has no obvious point. External factors may deliver a ballot question that wounds the incumbent. Money does matter, too, and the Tories have more than all their opponents combined. Most important, in a turnout election, however, is generating passion and excitement, to jolt the grumpy and complacent off to vote. That will be hard.

National polling leads are happy news at a campaign launch. In 1984, John Turner had one twice as big as Justin Trudeau’s, weeks before his party was crushed in one of its greatest defeats in history. Some campaigns matter more than others.

Policy Magazine Contributing Writer Robin V. Sears, is a veteran political strategist who has advised leaders in Canada and internationally. He is an independent communications consultant based in Ottawa.